Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin declined approximately 1.5% last week compared to the S&P 500’s ~10% two-day plunge
- Charles Schwab plans to introduce direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading during the first half of 2026
- Arthur Hayes cautions Bitcoin may drop beneath $60,000 before climbing to $250,000
- One bearish analyst forecasts Bitcoin could plummet to $12,000–$13,000 by mid-2027
- Historical data indicates Bitcoin typically surpasses gold and the S&P 500 performance within 60 days following major crises
Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable stability last week compared to traditional equity markets. As the S&P 500 experienced a dramatic 10% decline over just 48 hours, Bitcoin’s losses remained modest at roughly 1.5%. This performance disparity has prompted investors to reconsider crypto’s role in their portfolios.
Traditional markets tumbled following President Trump’s tariff policy announcements, which sent shockwaves through global financial systems. Throughout the turbulence, Bitcoin maintained support above the $66,000 level, climbing back toward $67,300 even as stock indices continued their descent.
Charles Schwab, overseeing approximately $12 trillion in client assets, revealed plans to introduce direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The forthcoming “Schwab Crypto” account platform is scheduled to debut during 2026’s first half.
This represents a departure from traditional exchange-traded fund offerings. Users will gain the ability to manage cryptocurrency holdings within the same account infrastructure used for equities and fixed-income securities.
Robinhood’s CEO Vlad Tenev also generated attention this week by describing market operating hours as “a legacy design choice,” suggesting tokenization could enable markets to function with internet-like continuous operation.
Hayes Emphasizes Federal Reserve Timeline
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, maintains a cautious near-term outlook. During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, he stated he wouldn’t allocate his final investment dollar to Bitcoin under current conditions.
His reasoning centers on Federal Reserve policy: the central bank hasn’t yet been compelled to inject additional liquidity into the financial system. Hayes anticipates tariffs will eventually generate sufficient voter backlash to trigger a pivot toward capital controls.
Such capital restrictions, according to his analysis, would serve as a powerful bullish trigger for Bitcoin. Hayes maintains a long-term price projection ranging from $250,000 to $750,000 for Bitcoin before the current cycle concludes.
However, he cautioned that extended military conflict between the United States and Iran might temporarily pressure Bitcoin below $60,000. Hayes also identified artificial intelligence-driven employment displacement as a potential catalyst for a deflationary credit contraction.
Historical Performance Analysis
A comprehensive study by Mercado Bitcoin examined 60-day recovery periods following significant global disruptions, including previous tariff conflicts and the COVID-19 pandemic onset. The research concluded Bitcoin repeatedly delivered superior returns compared to both gold and the S&P 500 during these timeframes.
Bitcoin typically experiences initial selloffs during crisis events as market participants flee to cash positions. However, historical patterns show cryptocurrency recoveries have consistently materialized faster and more forcefully than conventional asset classes.
Dissenting voices remain prominent. Technical analyst King of the Charts projects Bitcoin will find bottom support between $51,000 and $53,000 before suffering an 80% to 90% collapse toward $12,000 by mid-2027.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has registered “Extreme Fear” readings for consecutive weeks, with measurements approaching single-digit territory.
In a separate conversation with David Lin, Hayes advocated direct Bitcoin acquisition as the optimal strategy for protecting wealth against fiat currency devaluation, particularly as traditional stock selection grows increasingly challenging.
The Schwab cryptocurrency platform remains on track for its first-half 2026 launch window.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
