Key Takeaways
- Rocket Lab achieved 38% revenue growth to $601.8 million in 2025, supported by a $1.85 billion backlog
- An $816 million Space Development Agency contract strengthens Rocket Lab’s position in government aerospace
- AST SpaceMobile generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue as it continues early-stage commercial expansion
- AST maintains over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity for ongoing satellite constellation deployment
- Analyst consensus favors Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy rating, while AST receives a Reduce rating
The space sector has produced two fascinating investment opportunities in Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. These companies represent fundamentally different approaches to the commercial space industry, each carrying distinct risk-reward profiles. One has established a proven, multi-faceted aerospace business. The other is pursuing a potentially transformative vision for global mobile connectivity from orbit.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial results throughout 2025. The company’s revenue surged 38% year-over-year to reach $601.8 million. The fourth quarter alone produced record-breaking revenue of $179.7 million. Perhaps most significantly, Rocket Lab concluded the year with an outstanding backlog of $1.85 billion—representing a 73% increase compared to the previous year. This substantial backlog provides unusual visibility into the company’s revenue pipeline compared to many emerging space ventures.
The company’s evolution extends far beyond launch services alone. Product sales generated $371.6 million during 2025, while service revenue contributed $230.2 million. Today, Rocket Lab manufactures complete spacecraft, critical components, and sophisticated systems primarily serving national security applications.
Government Partnerships Provide Rocket Lab with Revenue Predictability
A significant milestone came with Rocket Lab securing an $816 million agreement from the Space Development Agency. This substantial award demonstrates the company’s credibility for executing complex, long-duration government programs. Meanwhile, the company’s Neutron medium-lift launch vehicle represents the anticipated catalyst for the next phase of expansion.
Yet profitability remains elusive. Rocket Lab reported a net loss totaling $198.2 million throughout 2025. Company leadership has projected continued adjusted EBITDA losses during the opening quarter of 2026. The investment thesis currently relies on anticipated operational leverage rather than demonstrated profitability.
AST SpaceMobile presents an entirely different investment proposition. This company is constructing a satellite constellation designed to deliver cellular broadband service directly to unmodified smartphones—eliminating the need for specialized terminals. Successful execution at commercial scale could unlock enormous markets currently beyond the reach of conventional satellite communications.
AST remains in the early stages of this ambitious undertaking. The company recorded $70.9 million in full-year 2025 revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue reached $54.3 million, primarily derived from gateway equipment deliveries, mobile network operator partnerships, and government contract milestones.
Strong Liquidity Position Supports AST SpaceMobile’s Deployment Timeline
The company reported holding $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as 2025 concluded. Following additional capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This financial cushion provides AST with the runway to continue satellite deployments without facing imminent capital constraints.
AST has secured more than $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments through partner agreements. For a company that only recently began generating meaningful revenue, this represents substantial validation. However, the company continues to post significant losses, and ultimate success hinges critically on deployment velocity and network performance.
The divergence in analyst sentiment is striking. Rocket Lab carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, comprised of 2 Strong Buys, 7 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell. AST SpaceMobile receives a Reduce consensus, with 2 Buys, 6 Holds, and 3 Sells.
Bottom Line
The analyst community demonstrates greater confidence in Rocket Lab’s established business model. While AST’s potential upside is recognized, it proves more difficult to justify with conventional valuation frameworks. Rocket Lab offers a more mature operation featuring greater revenue scale, business diversification, and broader Wall Street endorsement. AST represents a speculative opportunity with potentially exponential returns should its satellite broadband concept achieve commercial viability.
Rocket Lab presents the more established investment case at this juncture. AST SpaceMobile embodies the more audacious vision. The appropriate choice depends entirely on an investor’s capacity and appetite for execution risk.
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