Key Takeaways
- Tesla shares have declined approximately 20% since the start of the year, experiencing six consecutive weekly drops as of March 30.
- Analyst consensus anticipates Q1 2026 deliveries reaching approximately 366,000 units, representing growth from last year’s 337,000.
- Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, has committed to launching volume production of the Cybercab robotaxi in April.
- The company anticipates receiving supervised Full Self-Driving approval in the Netherlands during April, potentially unlocking European market expansion.
- First quarter earnings are forecast at 41 cents per share, marking improvement over the prior year’s 27 cents.
Tesla (TSLA) shares opened Monday trading at $364.42, gaining 0.7% despite carrying a year-to-date decline of approximately 20%.
Shares of the electric vehicle manufacturer posted modest gains early Monday, providing brief relief following an extended downturn spanning six straight weeks. Friday’s session saw the stock retreat 2.8%, contributing to a weekly loss of about 1.7% and bringing the total six-week decline to roughly 13%.
Interestingly, this bearish run commenced during the week Tesla delivered fourth quarter 2025 results that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. The automaker reported 50 cents per share versus analyst estimates of 43 cents. However, this performance still represented a significant retreat from the 73 cents per share achieved in Q4 2024, leaving market participants searching for signs of renewed expansion.
The company’s upcoming Q1 2026 delivery announcement, scheduled for Thursday before the Good Friday market closure, represents the next opportunity for demonstrating momentum.
Analyst projections center around 366,000 vehicle deliveries for the quarter, which would mark an increase from the 337,000 units delivered in the comparable period last year. UBS disrupted consensus expectations in mid-March with a more conservative forecast of 345,000 deliveries — falling short of the broader analyst consensus near 365,000. Meanwhile, prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a 62% probability that actual deliveries will land below 350,000 units.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery figure stood at 336,681. A decisive beat over this baseline would indicate the company has successfully navigated the sales headwinds encountered during the first half of 2025 — challenges primarily attributed to the transition period for the redesigned Model Y.
Robotaxi Production Timeline Approaches
Beyond quarterly delivery metrics, market watchers are closely monitoring developments in Tesla’s autonomous vehicle initiatives. Musk has publicly committed to initiating volume production of the Cybercab, the company’s purpose-built robotaxi, during April.
The complexity: Tesla currently lacks the necessary regulatory clearances for Cybercab deployment. Ramping production without secured approvals creates potential risks around capital allocation and inventory accumulation. Nonetheless, initiating the manufacturing process demonstrates operational progress and maintains investor attention on the autonomous transportation opportunity.
The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June of last year and has indicated plans to expand into additional metropolitan areas during the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has emerged as a potential candidate for the next market launch.
European Self-Driving Approval on the Horizon
Tesla is also pursuing supervised Full Self-Driving approval in the Netherlands, with an expected decision in April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has confirmed that both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Approval from Dutch regulators could serve as a springboard for expanded European Union market access — either through comprehensive EU-wide authorization or sequential approvals across individual member nations. Tesla has experienced market share erosion in Europe, and introducing FSD capabilities could strengthen the competitive standing of its vehicle lineup across the continent.
In addition to delivery figures, Cybercab production, and European FSD developments, Tesla is expected to reveal the third-generation version of its Optimus humanoid robot in the near term and may potentially showcase the long-awaited next-generation Roadster.
Wall Street analysts are projecting Q1 2026 earnings of 41 cents per share, representing substantial improvement from the 27 cents reported in Q1 2025. Market participants will likely need to wait for the earnings conference call — typically scheduled approximately three weeks following the delivery announcement — to receive comprehensive updates on robotaxi expansion plans and the Optimus development roadmap.
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