Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight stance on Apple with a price target of $315
- The firm’s AlphaWise survey conducted in late 2025 showed iPhone upgrade rates reaching unprecedented levels globally
- Chinese market upgrade rates surged by 9 percentage points compared to the previous year
- Apple is projected to be the sole major smartphone manufacturer increasing market share in 2026
- Interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features has weakened on a year-over-year basis
Shares of Apple received an upward push on Monday following the release of Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey results from late 2025, which highlighted exceptional iPhone upgrade trends as the company enters 2026.
The tech giant’s shares climbed approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Erik Woodring, the Morgan Stanley analyst covering the stock with an Overweight recommendation, maintained his $315 price objective. According to Woodring, the survey results support his thesis that Apple’s competitive positioning is more robust than current Wall Street consensus suggests.
The survey revealed that global blended iPhone upgrade rates reached 37%ārepresenting a 2 percentage point increase year-over-year and marking the highest level ever recorded in the survey’s history. Particularly noteworthy was China’s performance, where upgrade rates jumped 9 percentage points compared to last year, also achieving all-time survey highsāa positive development for a market that has raised concerns among Apple shareholders.
Apple stock was hovering near that price point heading into Monday’s session, with the iPhone maker commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E ratio of 31.47.
The survey uncovered additional encouraging trends: switching rates to Apple devices reached a five-year peak. Consumer preferences for average storage capacity increased by 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of respondents from the existing user base expressed interest in purchasing a foldable iPhoneāa device category Apple has not yet entered.
iPhone Sales Projections Exceed Consensus Estimates
Based on the survey data, Woodring anticipates that Apple will stand alone among major global smartphone producers in gaining market share throughout 2026.
His iPhone revenue projection for fiscal 2026 exceeds Street consensus by 3%, forecasting 6% growth compared to the consensus estimate of 3%. Looking to fiscal 2027, his estimate runs 4% above consensusāwhich would represent the most substantial two-year consecutive growth period for iPhone in more than ten years.
Over the trailing twelve months, Apple generated $435.6 billion in revenue, reflecting 10% growth.
A Notable Weakness Emerges
The survey wasn’t uniformly positive. Consumer sentiment regarding Apple Intelligenceāthe company’s artificial intelligence feature suiteāweakened year-over-year, as did consumer willingness to pay premium prices for these capabilities.
Rising memory prices are also anticipated to drive global smartphone costs higher, with Android device manufacturers appearing better positioned to capitalize on this pricing trend compared to Apple.
Several other financial institutions have recently updated their views on the stock. Bank of America reduced its Apple price target to $320 from a previous higher level while maintaining a Buy rating, incorporating expectations surrounding a potential foldable iPhone debut in 2026. Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s strategic approach of expanding its product lineup across various price tiers to capture additional market share.
In related developments, Apple’s Chief Operating Officer Sabih Khan recently toured the company’s research facility in Shenzhen and engaged with supply chain partnersāindicating sustained operational emphasis on the Chinese market.
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