Key Highlights
- XRP declined 3.52% to approximately $1.40 amid a wider crypto market pullback of roughly 2%
- March 27 represents the SEC’s final decision date for numerous spot XRP ETF filings
- Smaller wallets containing fewer than 100 XRP reached an all-time peak of 5.66 million
- Large holder wallets with over 100,000 XRP stayed unchanged at 32,054, indicating major players aren’t accumulating during the dip
- Open Interest in XRP futures contracts fell more than 5% to $2.33 billion, reflecting weakening trader interest
XRP faces downward momentum as the critical March 27 SEC spot ETF ruling date draws closer. While smaller investors seem to be taking advantage of lower prices, large-scale holders remain inactive and token balances on exchanges continue climbing — a combination that suggests near-term uncertainty.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by approximately 2%, now resting at $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin has remained beneath the $70,000 threshold throughout this period.
XRP experienced a 3.52% decline over the weekend, settling near $1.40. The digital asset couldn’t maintain levels above the $1.45 resistance point, and increased selling activity drove it below the $1.40 support boundary.
From a technical perspective, the MACD histogram displays bearish indicators. The signal line has moved beneath the MACD line, validating the present short-term downtrend.
Critical support rests around $1.38. Should this threshold fail, market observers are monitoring the $1.35 zone as the subsequent support level. A recovery above $1.45 would be necessary to change market sentiment, while surpassing $1.50 could pave the way toward the $1.55 resistance target.
March 27 SEC ETF Decision Deadline Approaches
The SEC faces its final decision deadline of March 27 for multiple pending XRP spot ETF proposals. Applications awaiting verdicts include those from Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.
Grayscale seeks to transform its $2.1 billion XRP trust into a spot ETF product. Franklin Templeton has put forward a competitive 0.15% management fee. Bloomberg intelligence analysts currently estimate a 95% probability that at least one application receives approval before the end of this year.
U.S.-based spot XRP investment products have already accumulated $1.44 billion in assets, predominantly from retail participants. Industry projections suggest institutional capital inflows could reach $8 billion following regulatory approvals, with pension funds and retirement portfolios anticipated to be major contributors.
ProShares previously introduced a 2x leveraged XRP ETF on NYSE Arca in July 2025. Additionally, in March, the SEC and CFTC published a comprehensive 68-page regulatory framework that classifies XRP as a digital commodity alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin.
Blockchain Metrics: Small Holders Accumulating, Large Holders Inactive
Santiment analytics reveal that wallets containing fewer than 100 XRP have climbed to an unprecedented 5.66 million. Wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 XRP also reached a new record at 2.01 million. However, wallets with more than 100,000 XRP remain static at 32,054, following a decline observed in early February.
This distribution pattern frequently indicates that smaller investors are absorbing supply from larger participants looking to exit positions.
CryptoQuant metrics show XRP holdings on Binance have increased to 2.79 billion XRP, up from 2.55 billion at the start of February. Growing exchange reserves generally indicate heightened selling pressure.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts commented on X: “$XRP may be setting up for a rebound as the TD Sequential flashes a buy signal.” This observation came while XRP continued trading beneath $1.40.
CoinGlass statistics place XRP futures Open Interest at $2.33 billion, declining more than 5% from the prior day’s $2.47 billion. Open Interest has experienced consistent decreases throughout most of 2026, suggesting diminished leveraged participation.
XRP currently shows a year-to-date decline of approximately 25%.
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