TLDR
- Nebius (NBIS) rallied almost 15% Monday following announcement of a $27 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms
- Meta agreed to $12 billion in committed capacity spanning five years, alongside $15 billion in extra compute linked to NVIDIA Vera Rubin installations
- NBIS shares declined approximately 8.9% Tuesday following disclosure of a $3.75 billion convertible bond issuance for data-center expansion
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) formed a partnership with Nebius to embed its Falcon cybersecurity solution within Nebius AI Cloud
- Citi launched coverage of NBIS with a Buy recommendation and a $169 target price, though designated it as “High Risk”
Nebius Group experienced a turbulent two-day stretch. The AI cloud infrastructure provider soared almost 15% Monday, only to surrender a significant portion of those gains Tuesday — all while announcing a major cybersecurity collaboration and receiving its first Wall Street rating.
Monday’s surge stemmed from a massive agreement with Meta Platforms. Nebius disclosed plans to provide $12 billion worth of dedicated compute infrastructure to Meta across the next five years, with initial deployment scheduled for early 2026. Meta further pledged to purchase an extra $15 billion in compute resources connected to Nebius’s forthcoming NVIDIA Vera Rubin installations — pushing the aggregate deal value to $27 billion.
“We are pleased to expand our partnership with Meta as part of securing more large, long-term capacity contracts,” said Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh.
The Meta revelation followed closely behind another significant development: a collaboration with NVIDIA announced last week, which included a $2 billion equity investment from the semiconductor giant. That agreement involves joint development of next-generation hyperscale cloud infrastructure targeting the AI sector.
Convertible Bond Offering Spooks Investors
Sentiment reversed Tuesday. Nebius revealed intentions to issue $3.75 billion in convertible notes — split across two tranches maturing in 2031 and 2033 — to finance its data-center build-out. Shares retreated roughly 8.5% to $118.60 as market participants expressed concern over possible dilution should noteholders exercise conversion rights.
Nebius aims to reach 5 gigawatts of AI power capacity by decade’s end, up from merely 170 megawatts of operational power last year. That expansion would represent approximately 5% of what Citi forecasts as a 110-gigawatt worldwide AI data-center market.
Notwithstanding Tuesday’s selloff, Citi launched coverage of NBIS with a Buy rating and a $169 price objective. Analyst Tyler Radke emphasized Nebius’s combination of data centers, proprietary hardware, and emerging cloud software as a competitive advantage in the neocloud segment.
Radke acknowledged significant risks, however. Nebius only started trading as a standalone entity in 2024 after separating from Yandex’s non-Russian operations. Meta and Microsoft collectively represent approximately 40% of projected 2026 recurring revenue — a considerable customer concentration. Citi formally designated the stock as “High Risk.”
“NBIS is positioned to gain share within an AI compute market that itself is more than doubling every two years,” Radke said.
CrowdStrike Brings Falcon to Nebius AI Cloud
Concurrently, CrowdStrike unveiled a partnership with Nebius to incorporate its Falcon cybersecurity platform into Nebius AI Cloud. The collaboration enables Nebius clients to execute AI workloads while maintaining their current CrowdStrike security frameworks.
“Working with CrowdStrike means customers can run AI workloads on our full-stack platform without disrupting the security controls they already rely on,” said Nebius CRO Mark Boroditsky.
Morgan Stanley recently elevated CrowdStrike from Equalweight to Overweight, citing platform robustness and endpoint market prospects. RBC Capital likewise preserved its Outperform rating after observing solid ARR expansion and increased fiscal 2027 projections.
CRWD stock was up 3.30% on the session.
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