TLDR
- Bernstein upgraded TSMC’s price target to NT$2,200 from NT$1,800
- Analysts expect AI-driven revenue to surpass 20% of total sales by 2026, rising from 18% in 2025
- TSMC’s board authorized $44.96 billion in capital spending to support AI chip expansion
- February sales reached NT$317.6 billion — a 22.2% increase year-over-year
- First two months’ revenue jumped approximately 30% compared to the prior-year period
Taiwan Semiconductor’s board has authorized close to $45 billion in new capital spending while Bernstein analysts elevated their price target amid accelerating AI revenue growth.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor posted NT$317.6 billion in February sales, marking a 22.2% gain versus the year-ago period. While that represents a roughly 21% decline from January’s figure, such monthly fluctuations are typical seasonal movements and require no special interpretation.
Step back to view the broader trend, and the performance becomes more compelling. Revenue across the opening two months of 2026 increased approximately 30% relative to the comparable 2025 timeframe. The catalyst? Robust demand for high-performance computing and AI applications from major clients including Apple, Nvidia, and AMD.
Bernstein’s research team forecasts that AI-linked revenue will exceed 20% of TSMC’s overall income stream by 2026. This represents growth from the estimated 18% contribution in 2025. Traditional logic chips aren’t the only contributors to this expansion.
TSMC now derives AI revenue from High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) base dies — the foundational silicon layer in HBM assemblies. This represents a fresh revenue source that’s opening additional opportunities in the AI marketplace.
Bernstein Lifts Price Target
Based on these forward-looking metrics, Bernstein elevated TSMC’s price objective from NT$1,800 to NT$2,200. The analysts highlighted AI momentum alongside resilient non-AI demand as the key factors justifying the revision.
Demand outside the AI sector remains robust as well. Premium smartphone production continues anchoring that business segment. Bernstein additionally observed that should any non-AI customers reduce their capacity requirements, AI clients — currently experiencing allocation constraints — stand ready to claim that space immediately.
This supply-demand interplay provides TSMC with a valuable cushion. Softness in one customer category gets rapidly offset by strength in another.
$45 Billion Capital Investment
TSMC’s board approved $44.96 billion in fresh capital allocation. These funds will support advanced manufacturing processes, enhanced packaging capabilities, specialty process technologies, and construction of additional fabrication facilities.
This represents an offensive strategy rather than a defensive posture — a calculated response to persistent client requirements. TSMC is expanding capacity in the present to meet delivery obligations in the future.
Investors also have near-term returns to anticipate. The company announced a Q4 2025 cash dividend of $0.9503 per ADS, scheduled for July 9, 2026 distribution to shareholders of record as of June 11, 2026.
TSM stock has surged more than 83% during the trailing twelve-month period, finishing last Friday’s session at €295.50.
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