TLDR
- Fourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% annually to $1.87 million, falling short of the $2.33 million analyst consensus
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh reduced his price objective from $50 to $43 while keeping his Buy recommendation, highlighting 142% potential gains
- The company reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds, delivering speeds potentially 3–5x faster than rivals
- Cash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract secured from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
- Development roadmap targets 150+ physical qubits by December 2026 and 1,000+ by late 2027
Rigetti Computing experienced disappointing revenue results in the fourth quarter, yet the company’s technological achievements paint an entirely different picture. Here’s the complete breakdown.
Fourth quarter 2025 revenue totaled $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline from the prior year period and missing analyst expectations of $2.33 million. The previous quarter delivered $2.3 million, highlighting a significant sequential decline.
Gross margin performance also weakened, sliding to 35% compared to 44% in the year-ago quarter. Management attributed the compression to shifts in contract composition rather than fundamental operational challenges.
Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the period, compared to $18.5 million twelve months prior. Combined operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, primarily fueled by increased research and development investment.
Regarding per-share results, Rigetti reported a loss of $0.03, matching analyst consensus expectations.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh adjusted his price objective downward from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. However, he maintained his Buy recommendation on the shares.
At the $43 target level, the analyst projects approximately 142% potential appreciation from present trading levels. Rakesh’s valuation framework applies roughly 9x his revenue forecast 30 months forward, assuming Rigetti secures 10% market share in quantum computing.
Q1 Outlook and Near-Term Contracts
Rakesh projects first quarter 2026 revenue of $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% year-over-year growth. This anticipated expansion is primarily driven by Rigetti’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor agreement.
Additionally, the company plans to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the latter half of 2026, representing an $8.4 million transaction.
Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient capital to pursue its development plans without near-term funding requirements.
Technical Progress
From a technology standpoint, Rigetti reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing a novel adiabatic CZ methodology at 28 nanoseconds. According to the company, this performance represents potentially 3 to 5 times faster execution than alternative solutions.
Rigetti has successfully launched an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture and a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration to cloud platforms.
The organization manages Fab One, characterized as the sector’s first purpose-built and vertically integrated quantum device production facility.
Notable collaborations include working with Riverlane on error correction capabilities and Nvidia for connecting quantum processors with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing environments.
Rigetti’s development timeline calls for exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 by year-end 2027. The company estimates quantum advantage achievement is approximately three years away.
According to TipRanks data, RGTI carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current price levels.
Throughout the past twelve months, RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117%.
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