TLDR
- Nearly $1 million in combined profits were generated by six recently established Polymarket wallets that wagered on US military action against Iran ahead of February 28, 2026.
- The majority of these accounts received funding and became operational within a day of the military strikes, purchasing shares mere hours before explosions occurred in Tehran.
- One wallet transformed approximately $61,000 into more than $493,000 in returns.
- Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics company, identified these accounts as potentially having insider knowledge, though definitive proof remains elusive.
- Congressman Ritchie Torres is drafting new legislation aimed at prohibiting government employees from engaging in prediction market trading based on classified policy information.
A group of six freshly minted cryptocurrency wallets generated close to $1 million in earnings through the Polymarket prediction platform by wagering that America would launch strikes against Iran prior to February 28, 2026 — notably, the bulk of these positions were established just hours ahead of initial blast reports from Tehran.
Blockchain intelligence company Bubblemaps identified these six wallets following discovery of a concerning timeline pattern. The accounts underwent creation and received initial deposits within a 24-hour window preceding the attacks, with all purchasing affirmative shares for the market question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”
President Donald Trump acknowledged “massive and ongoing” military campaigns targeting Iran, designated by the Department of War as “Operation Epic Fury.” Israeli forces participated alongside American troops in the coordinated assault.
The most profitable wallet acquired 560,680 affirmative shares at approximately 10.8 cents per unit, investing around $61,000 total. Upon contract settlement, the position generated profits exceeding $493,000.
Another account labeled “Planktonbets” accumulated $173,907 in earnings spanning seven different predictions. This wallet had previously made unsuccessful smaller wagers on alternative strike dates, indicating ongoing efforts to pinpoint the precise timing.
An account identified as “Dicedicedice” placed one strategic bet and collected $119,964 — representing a 400% gain. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” secured the most impressive percentage return among identified wallets at 900%, converting $9,884 into approximately $89,000.
Two additional wallets, “nothingeverhappens911” and one remaining anonymous, generated $66,436 and $45,556 in profits respectively. Every flagged account has subsequently liquidated all positions.
One Trader Lost Millions on the Same Day
The strikes didn’t create universal winners. A participant operating under “anoin123” had accumulated over $2 million through bets opposing military strikes during previous months. After the attacks materialized, this trader suffered $6.5 million in losses within 24 hours, transitioning from $2 million in gains to a $4.5 million deficit, based on blockchain data from Lookonchain.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, informed The Block: “Achieving 100% certainty in these situations is virtually impossible, but considering the bet magnitudes, newly funded wallets, and precise timing, the evidence seemed substantial enough to disclose.”
The collection of “US strikes Iran” related contracts generated over $529 million in aggregate trading activity on Polymarket beginning December 2025. The specific February 28 market drew approximately $90 million alone.
A Pattern of Suspected Insider Trading
This incident marks another chapter in Polymarket’s ongoing struggles with potential insider trading allegations. During January, a newly established wallet invested $32,000 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal at 7 cents per share, securing over $400,000 before information became publicly available.
Earlier in the current month, Israeli legal authorities charged an IDF reservist alongside a civilian for purportedly leveraging classified military data to wager on Polymarket markets connected to Israel’s Iran strike during June 2025’s Twelve-Day War. The accused reportedly generated combined earnings surpassing $150,000.
Mere days before the Iran military action, suspected insiders accumulated over $1 million through a Polymarket contract associated with a blockchain inquiry into cryptocurrency platform Axiom.
US Representative Ritchie Torres has put forward the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, legislation designed to prevent federal employees from conducting prediction market trades related to governmental policy utilizing privileged information. Competing platform Kalshi has openly supported the proposed law, with its chief executive noting that regulated prediction markets face restrictions against operating war-related markets.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
