TLDR
- The yellow metal climbed 0.9% to $5,232.21 per ounce Friday, continuing a seven-month rally
- Bernstein raised its long-term forecast to $4,800 in 2026 and $6,100 by 2030
- Continued central bank buying and growing ETF holdings support bullish price predictions
- Uncertainty over tariff policies and Iran nuclear negotiations drive safe-haven demand
- Leading gold miner Newmont (NEM) upgraded to Outperform with $157 price target
The precious metal gained 0.9% on Friday, closing at $5,232.21 per ounce and extending its winning streak to seven consecutive months. Futures contracts for April delivery in U.S. markets rose 1.2% to $5,253.20.
February saw gold prices climb 6.5%. Over the past seven months, the metal has rallied an impressive 58%.
Market observers attribute this sustained rally to ongoing concerns about the administration’s trade policy direction and negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program.
“Gold is being supported by two key factors at the moment. First, there’s uncertainty about tariffs in the market, and second, the evolving relationship between the United States and Iran,” said ANZ analyst Soni Kumari.
The administration rolled out a 10% baseline tariff on imports this Tuesday. According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, that rate will rise to 15% for select countries.
Indirect talks between American and Iranian officials took place in Geneva on Thursday. Oman, serving as mediator, reported progress had been made, with technical discussions set to continue in Vienna next week.
“The latest talks haven’t produced concrete outcomes, keeping geopolitical risk elevated without major escalation,” said Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to their lowest point in three months Friday, reducing the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding assets such as gold — a factor that has historically supported precious metal prices.
Bernstein’s Long-Term Outlook
Brokerage firm Bernstein has increased its long-range gold price targets, now expecting $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end.
Analyst Bob Brackett based his projections on a model tracking net central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund flows, while factoring in expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
While central bank gold purchases slowed in 2025, they remain well above pre-2022 levels. Survey data shows 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to grow over the next year.
ETF holdings have grown significantly since mid-2024. Brackett described ETFs as a “swing” factor — one that can amplify price action when inflows pick up momentum.
Markets are currently pricing in two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Brackett noted that gold typically gains an average of 6.53% in the year following rate cuts, suggesting potential total returns of around 13% from policy easing alone.
Newmont Upgrade
Bernstein also upgraded major mining company Newmont (NEM) to Outperform, assigning a $157 price target. The firm raised its EBITDA estimate for the miner by 26% to $21.9 billion, driven by its improved gold price outlook.
Newmont shares gained 2.33% on Friday.
Elsewhere in precious metals, silver spot prices jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, heading for a 6.2% monthly gain. Platinum spot prices surged 5.3% to a four-week high of $2,393.80, while palladium rose 1.5% to $1,810.60.
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