Key Takeaways
- Gold advanced 0.9% to reach $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains
- Bernstein analysts elevated their price projections to $4,800 for 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end
- Strong central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund inflows underpin the optimistic forecast
- Trade policy concerns and Middle East diplomatic tensions boost safe-haven appeal
- Bernstein elevated Newmont (NEM) rating to Outperform with $157 target price
The spot price of gold advanced 0.9% to settle at $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, extending the precious metal’s winning streak to seven straight months. Futures contracts for April delivery showed even stronger momentum, jumping 1.2% to $5,253.20.
February alone has witnessed a 6.5% appreciation in gold prices. Looking at the broader picture, the metal has surged an impressive 58% across the previous seven-month period.
The rally reflects mounting concerns over American trade policy direction and ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
“Two key factors are underpinning gold’s strength. The prevailing uncertainty surrounding tariff policies represents one pillar, while the evolving U.S.-Iran dynamic constitutes the other,” explained ANZ analyst Soni Kumari.
Washington implemented a 10% universal import levy this Tuesday. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has indicated this baseline rate could climb to 15% for certain trading partners.
Indirect negotiations between American and Iranian representatives took place Thursday in Geneva. An Omani intermediary characterized the discussions as productive, with technical-level meetings scheduled for Vienna next week.
“Current negotiation rounds haven’t yielded definitive results, maintaining geopolitical risk premiums without immediate escalation,” noted Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com.
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to their lowest point in three months Friday, diminishing the relative cost of holding gold, which generates no interest incomeāa dynamic that has previously supported precious metal valuations.
Bernstein’s Extended Price Projections
Bernstein analysts have elevated their extended-term gold price expectations, now anticipating $4,800 per ounce by 2026 and $6,100 when 2030 arrives.
Analyst Bob Brackett constructed these projections using a methodology centered on net central bank purchasing activity and exchange-traded fund movement patterns, combined with anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments.
While central bank buying activity moderated during 2025, it continues substantially exceeding levels observed before 2022. Survey research indicates 95% of central banking institutions anticipate worldwide gold reserve expansion throughout the coming year.
ETF position sizes have expanded markedly since the middle of 2024. Brackett characterized ETFs as a “swing” componentācapable of magnifying price movements when capital inflows accelerate.
Current market pricing incorporates expectations for two or three Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026. Brackett highlighted that gold has historically appreciated an average 6.53% during the twelve-month windows following rate cuts, suggesting potential aggregate returns approaching 13% from monetary easing alone.
Newmont Receives Upgrade
Bernstein simultaneously elevated Newmont (NEM) to Outperform status, establishing a $157 price objective. The brokerage increased its EBITDA projection for the mining company by 26% to $21.9 billion, reflecting the firm’s enhanced gold price assumptions.
NEM shares appreciated 2.33% during Friday’s session.
Across the broader precious metals complex, spot silver jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, positioning for a 6.2% monthly advance. Spot platinum surged 5.3% to reach a four-week peak of $2,393.80, while palladium added 1.5% to finish at $1,810.60.
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