TLDR
- Novavax delivered Q4 EPS of $0.11, surpassing analyst forecasts by $0.60
- Fourth-quarter revenue reached $147M, significantly exceeding the $90.25M consensus projection
- The biotech firm turned profitable with $18M net income versus an $81M loss in the prior year period
- Novavax elevated its 2026 adjusted revenue forecast to $230M–$270M from the previous $185M–$205M range
- Strategic licensing partnerships, notably a $530M deal with Pfizer for Matrix-M adjuvant technology, fuel positive sentiment
Novavax (NVAX) delivered an impressive fourth-quarter performance, surpassing analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines while simultaneously elevating its 2026 financial outlook.
The biotech company recorded Q4 earnings per share of $0.11, dramatically outperforming the Street’s -$0.49 estimate by a margin of $0.60. Top-line results reached $147 million, representing a 67% year-over-year increase and substantially exceeding the roughly $90 million consensus forecast.
The company posted net income of $18 million for the period. This marks a significant reversal from the $81 million net loss reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous year — a turnaround fueled by operational efficiencies and income from licensing arrangements.
NVAX shares settled at $9.53 during the session. The equity has appreciated 35.18% over the trailing three-month period and gained 34.99% across the past year.
InvestingPro assigns Novavax a “great performance” rating for its Financial Health score.
The quarterly performance extended beyond traditional vaccine revenue streams. Strategic licensing arrangements have emerged as a pivotal component of Novavax’s business model, contributing meaningfully to the financial results.
In the previous month, Novavax secured a licensing agreement with Pfizer valued at up to $530 million for its Matrix-M adjuvant technology. Matrix-M serves as the critical ingredient in the Nuvaxovid vaccine that enhances the immune system’s response to vaccination.
Chief Executive John Jacobs emphasized heightened demand for the company’s platform technology. “We have more interest than I’ve ever seen in three years in our tech and some great conversations going on,” he shared with Reuters.
2026 Outlook Raised
Novavax has updated its 2026 adjusted revenue projection to a range of $230 million to $270 million. This represents an increase from the previously announced guidance of $185 million to $205 million.
These projections do not incorporate revenue streams or royalty payments stemming from the Sanofi collaboration, which represents additional potential upside beyond the updated forecast.
The organization anticipates that milestone payments derived from vaccine supply contracts and licensing deals will help balance declining demand in the COVID-19 vaccine market.
Regulatory and Policy Backdrop
COVID-19 immunization rates across the United States have declined during the present administration, which has implemented vaccine policy modifications that have created headwinds for the industry.
Jacobs recognized the challenges. “We probably disagree as a scientific community and an industry with some of their positions,” he noted, while expressing optimism that “we do see a pathway forward.”
Earlier in the month, the FDA initially rejected Moderna’s mRNA influenza vaccine submission before reversing course following Moderna’s amended application. Jacobs welcomed the development, stating it was “good to see them have a regulatory path forward.”
Novavax aims to achieve complete profitability by 2028, underpinned by critical product releases through its Sanofi partnership. Among these is a combination COVID-influenza vaccine incorporating the Nuvaxovid platform.
Analyst sentiment showed 0 upward EPS estimate revisions and 2 downward EPS estimate revisions during the 90-day window preceding the earnings announcement.
Q4 revenue of $147 million exceeded analysts’ mean projection of $78.84 million, based on LSEG data.
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