Key Highlights
- Intel (INTC) shares have climbed approximately 90% over the last 12 months, currently hovering near $46 with a 5.7% daily gain.
- The stock carries a valuation of 112x earnings, while Wall Street anticipates EPS will approach double by 2027.
- Projected EBITDA expansion from $1.2B in 2024 to $25.1B in 2028 underpins the bullish thesis.
- The chipmaker participated in a $350M investment round for AI startup SambaNova, establishing a strategic technical alliance.
- Wall Street consensus stands at “Reduce” with a $45.74 target price, despite recent rating improvements from multiple firms.
Intel’s (INTC) equity performance has been nothing short of impressive. Following a trough near $17.67 twelve months ago, shares now trade around $46 — representing an approximately 90% recovery that has market participants questioning the sustainability of this momentum.
Shares advanced an additional 5.7% during Wednesday’s session, starting the day at $46.12.
For a semiconductor giant that struggled for years against competitive pressure, this reversal has captured significant investor interest. However, the fundamentals supporting this rally deserve careful examination.
INTC currently commands a 112x earnings multiple, even when accounting for one-time adjustments. That represents a premium valuation for a chipmaker still reporting negative profit margins.
What’s driving investor appetite at these levels? The explanation centers on forward earnings growth.
Wall Street forecasts full-year 2026 EPS of $0.48, representing 15% annual growth. That figure is anticipated to approach $1 by 2027. Some projections extend as high as $1.80.
Should these targets materialize, current buyers could be paying under 20x projected 2028 earnings.
Intel exceeded Q4 expectations, delivering EPS of $0.15 versus the $0.08 consensus. Revenue reached $13.67 billion, topping the $13.37 billion forecast. However, revenue still declined 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Q1 2026 guidance proved conservative, with EPS projected flat and revenue anticipated between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. Management indicated supply constraints would peak in Q1 before easing throughout the year.
SambaNova Partnership Strengthens AI Strategy
A recent development: Intel participated in a $350 million financing round for AI-focused chip startup SambaNova, announcing a multiyear technical collaboration centered on AI inference capabilities. CEO Lip-Bu Tan serves as both an investor and chairman at SambaNova — a connection that has generated interest and questions.
The arrangement emerged after reported acquisition discussions collapsed. Currently, Intel maintains an equity position and partnership agreement rather than outright ownership.
Broader industry trends provided additional support. A significant partnership between AMD and Meta boosted semiconductor equities across the board, lifting Intel alongside competitors.
Major Institutional Accumulation Continues
EverSource Wealth Advisors expanded its Intel holdings by 45.1% during Q3, acquiring an additional 13,700 shares for a total of 44,090, representing approximately $1.48 million.
Norges Bank established a fresh position valued at roughly $1.58 billion. Vanguard expanded its stake by 2.3%, now controlling over 385 million shares worth $8.64 billion. Institutional ownership now represents 64.53% of outstanding shares.
Regarding insider activity, EVP David Zinsner purchased $249,985 in INTC stock at $42.50 per share in late January. EVP April Miller divested $981,000 worth at $49.05 in early February.
EBITDA projections show expansion from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $25.1 billion by 2028 — a trajectory that forms the foundation of the optimistic outlook.
Technically, the 50-day moving average rests at $44.04, while the 200-day moving average stands at $37.00. The aggregate analyst rating remains “Reduce” with a price objective of $45.74. The breakdown shows five Buy ratings, 26 Hold ratings, and six Sell ratings.
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