Key Takeaways
- First Solar (FSLR) shares plummeted approximately 15% following the release of 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $4.9B to $5.2B, significantly trailing analyst expectations of roughly $6.16B.
- Fourth-quarter earnings reached $4.84 per share, falling short of consensus by $0.30, while quarterly revenue exceeded forecasts at $1.68B versus the anticipated $1.57B.
- Full-year 2025 net sales achieved an all-time high of $5.2B, representing an increase from the previous year’s $4.2B.
- Management projects tariff-related costs between $125M and $135M for 2026, while pointing to permitting obstacles and regulatory uncertainty stemming from Trump administration policies.
- A forthcoming South Carolina finishing facility is slated to commence operations in Q4 2026, designed to enhance logistics efficiency and meet domestic content standards.
Shares of First Solar experienced a sharp decline of roughly 15% during Wednesday’s trading session following the solar manufacturer’s underwhelming revenue projection for 2026.
The photovoltaic module producer issued forward guidance calling for 2026 net sales between $4.9 billion and $5.2 billion. Market analysts had anticipated approximately $6.16 billion, based on FactSet consensus estimates.
This substantial shortfall triggered an immediate negative response from investors.
Regarding Q4 performance, First Solar posted earnings of $4.84 per share, missing the consensus estimate by thirty cents. Quarterly revenue climbed 11% compared to the year-ago period, reaching $1.68 billion and surpassing the $1.57 billion analyst forecast.
While the top-line figure exceeded expectations, the bottom-line disappointment combined with weak forward-looking guidance proved sufficient to trigger the selloff.
The company’s full-year 2025 performance showed strength. Net sales reached an unprecedented $5.2 billion, advancing from $4.2 billion in 2024, propelled by increased module shipment volumes. Annual earnings totaled $14.21 per share.
Prior to Tuesday’s earnings release, FSLR shares had declined nearly 7% year-to-date, although the stock had appreciated more than 55% over the trailing twelve-month period.
Regulatory Environment Creates Headwinds
Management didn’t mince words regarding the challenges facing 2026 projections: the prevailing U.S. regulatory landscape.
First Solar indicated its outlook assumes continuation of existing policies. The Trump administration has implemented new 15% tariffs on select imports for a 150-day duration, supplementing previously established aluminum and steel duties.
Management anticipates aggregate tariff-related expenses ranging from $125 million to $135 million during the current year.
Permitting bottlenecks and a moratorium on significant project authorizations under the existing administration are impacting the solar industry broadly. The Trump administration’s energy priorities emphasize fossil fuels and nuclear power — representing a dramatic departure from the renewable energy initiatives championed during the Biden presidency.
Market appetite for First Solar’s Series 6 module — manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam for utility-scale solar installations — continues facing pressure within this framework.
Domestic Production Expansion Addresses Challenges
To mitigate tariff exposure, First Solar is establishing a new finishing operation in South Carolina, projected to become operational during Q4 2026.
This facility will utilize components sourced from Asian manufacturing sites while completing final production steps domestically, enabling the company to reduce transportation expenses, tariff liability, and satisfy domestic content mandates.
CEO Mark Widmar addressed the company’s strategy during this challenging environment: “As we navigated a rapidly evolving environment, we maintained a disciplined approach to contracting and remained anchored in our core principle of pricing and delivery certainty.”
First Solar additionally brought a Louisiana manufacturing plant online during 2025 and has committed to constructing another South Carolina facility.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos characterized the disappointing 2026 guidance as a “clearing event” that might set the stage for volume expansion in 2027 — assuming no further tariff implementations.
Citi analyst Vikram Bagri offered a straightforward assessment: “First Solar is well understood to be a 2027 story with several positive catalysts on the way.”
During Wednesday’s premarket session, FSLR declined as much as 16.7%.
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