TLDR
- Only 10,200 BTC could disrupt markets if hacked by quantum computers, says CoinShares.
- CoinShares says current quantum machines are 100,000 times too weak to break Bitcoin.
- Most vulnerable BTC sits in inactive legacy addresses with visible public keys.
- CoinShares warns that burning old coins would go against Bitcoin’s core principles
CoinShares, a digital asset management firm, has released a report that disputes popular estimates of Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing. The company claims that only 10,200 BTC are at genuine risk of quantum theft, much lower than earlier reports that suggested 20% to 50% of all BTC could be exposed.
CoinShares dropped a report saying quantum computers breaking Bitcoin is basically a 2030s problem, not a 2026 panic. Shor's algorithm? Cool in theory. Actual threat? Decades out. Bitcoin's got time to level up its security game. Everyone can unclench now. pic.twitter.com/VqKulmHeF2
— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) February 9, 2026
The report, led by Christopher Bendiksen, focuses on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses. These older addresses reveal public keys on the blockchain and are more exposed to potential quantum attacks. According to CoinShares, around 1.6 million BTC are in these addresses, but only a small fraction are held in wallets large enough to affect the market if accessed.
Chaincode Estimates Are Called Overstated
CoinShares criticized a May 2025 study by Chaincode Labs that warned up to half of all Bitcoin could be at risk. That study included a wide range of exposure types, including temporary risks such as address reuse, which CoinShares says can be fixed easily.
The firm argues that many of these risks do not pose a realistic threat. It narrowed the scope to focus only on addresses where public keys are permanently visible. The majority of these wallets hold small amounts and are widely distributed, making them a lower threat. Only about 10,200 BTC are stored in larger wallets that could impact the market if accessed by an attacker.
Quantum Computing Still Far From Capable
The report stresses that current quantum computers are not close to breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography. It cites research that estimates a quantum machine would need around 13 million physical qubits to reverse a public key in one day. For comparison, Google’s latest quantum processor, Willow, has just 105 qubits.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet supported this by stating that every added qubit increases the complexity of maintaining system coherence. CoinShares concluded that quantum computing is not an immediate threat and is still years away from reaching the needed capacity.
Debate on Future Security and Governance
CoinShares addressed recent proposals from some in the Bitcoin community to burn vulnerable coins using a soft fork. The company opposed this approach, stating that removing coins belonging to inactive users violates Bitcoin’s principles. “I find the very idea of burning coins that are not your own squarely contradictory to Bitcoin’s ethos,” wrote Bendiksen.
The report also advised against adopting quantum-resistant address formats too early. It warned that moving too fast could introduce bugs and misuse development resources. Instead, CoinShares recommends a cautious and steady approach. Cryptographer Adam Back stated that Bitcoin can evolve defensively by adopting new signature schemes when ready.
While the quantum computing sector continues to grow, CoinShares maintains that the risk to Bitcoin remains limited for now. Institutional investors, it said, have time to prepare before any real threat emerges.
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