Ukraine Bans Polymarket With No Legal Path For Prediction Markets Return

TLDR

Table of Contents

Ukraine law does not recognize prediction markets, blocking legal operations.
Polymarket is treated as an unlicensed gambling platform by regulators.
Wartime conditions make legal changes highly unlikely.
Users are not currently targeted for accessing platforms through VPNs.

Ukraine has officially banned Polymarket, classifying it as an unlicensed gambling platform under current laws. With no legal recognition for Web3 prediction markets, the country has left platforms like Polymarket without a clear path for return. As Ukraine’s legal framework doesn’t recognize prediction markets, and wartime conditions hinder legislative change, the ban reflects a significant roadblock for the Web3 prediction market industry in the region.

Ukraine bans Polymarket under existing gambling laws

Ukraine has officially blocked access to Polymarket following a regulatory directive. The order required internet providers to restrict access to nearly 200 gambling-related websites. The National Commission for State Regulation of Electronic Communications issued the directive.
It acted on a recommendation from PlayCity, Ukraine’s gambling regulator.

Authorities classified Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling operator. The platform lacks approval under Ukraine’s current gambling framework. Dmitry Nikolaievskyi confirmed the ban followed existing procedures.

🚫UKRAINE BANS POLYMARKET
Ukraine has blocked Polymarket and similar platforms, classifying them as unlicensed gambling operators. pic.twitter.com/Jj34Th3kxm
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) January 24, 2026

He serves as chief legal officer at the Digital Economy Project Office. He stated that regulators applied current law rather than new interpretations. Therefore, Polymarket received no special treatment under enforcement actions.

No legal recognition for Web3 prediction markets

Ukrainian law does not define or recognize prediction markets. This absence leaves such platforms outside any legal structure. Nikolaievskyi said legislation contains no concept of prediction markets. As a result, regulators cannot license or regulate them. A delayed law titled “On Virtual Assets” remains unpassed. That law would allow companies to operate legally using cryptocurrency.

Until then, crypto-based event betting remains unlicensed. This includes platforms like Polymarket that use smart contracts. Nikolaievskyi said this creates a legal deadlock. “There is currently no legal way” for these platforms to operate, he said.

War-related markets drew faster regulatory attention

Polymarket hosts markets tied to global and regional events. Some markets focused on outcomes related to the Russia-Ukraine war. Regulators cited concerns about such markets.
They included predictions involving territory control.

Nikolaievskyi said war-related bets may have accelerated action. “We cannot rule out” their role in the decision, he stated. Local media reported large volumes of war-linked wagers.
Some estimates exceeded $270 million in total bets. However, officials said the ban relied on legal grounds. They denied acting outside formal regulatory processes.

No action against users and no near-term legal change

The ban targets platforms rather than individual users. Officials said users are not currently being pursued. Nikolaievskyi said he knew of no action against VPN use. He also cited no penalties for interacting with smart contracts.

Other platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt remain accessible. However, they may face future enforcement actions. PlayCity allows citizens to file complaints against platforms. A single report could trigger regulatory review.

Legal change appears unlikely during wartime. Parliament would need to revise gambling definitions. Nikolaievskyi said the chance of such revisions is extremely low. Therefore, Polymarket has no legal path to return to Ukraine.