TLDR
- UBS downgraded Rivian stock to Sell from Hold with a $15 price target, citing elevated expectations and sentiment concerns
- Rivian shares dropped 7.2% to $17.50 on Wednesday following the downgrade
- This marks the second Sell downgrade this week after Wolfe Research cut its rating on Monday
- The stock has surged 44% over the past three months on optimism about self-driving tech and the upcoming R2 launch
- 30% of analysts now rate Rivian as Sell, compared to the S&P 500 average of 7%
Rivian stock took a beating on Wednesday after UBS became the second firm this week to slap a Sell rating on the electric vehicle maker. The shares fell 7.2% to $17.50 as concerns mount that the recent rally has pushed valuations too far ahead of reality.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak cut his rating to Sell from Hold, raising his price target slightly to $15 from $13. The downgrade follows a similar move by Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner on Monday, who set a $16 price target.
The timing might seem odd given Rivian’s recent momentum. Shares have jumped 44% over the past three months, powered by excitement around the company’s AI and autonomy push plus anticipation for the lower-priced R2 models launching later this year.
Rivian held an AI & Autonomy day in December, laying out plans for self-driving technology similar to Tesla’s approach. The event sparked fresh investor interest in the struggling EV maker. The company also generated buzz with its R2 SUV, which carries a lower price tag designed to attract more buyers.
But Spak thinks the party might be over for now. He warns that expectations for R2 sales could be running too hot. If Rivian fails to meet Wall Street’s delivery forecasts, the stock could give back its recent gains.
Sales Slump Raises Questions
The sales picture tells a sobering story. Rivian delivered about 42,000 vehicles in 2025, down from roughly 52,000 in 2024. Analysts project a rebound to 68,000 units in 2026, but that recovery hinges heavily on R2 success.
UBS believes most of the positive news around Rivian’s AI capabilities is already priced into the stock. The 15% gain since the December 11 autonomy event suggests investors have already digested the upside from that announcement.
Wall Street’s Skepticism Deepens
The broader analyst community remains cautious on Rivian. Only 30% of analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy, well below the 55% average for S&P 500 companies.
More telling is the Sell-rating ratio. With the latest downgrades, 30% of analysts now recommend selling Rivian shares. That’s more than four times the 7% Sell ratio typical for S&P 500 stocks.
The average analyst price target sits at around $17, just below Wednesday’s closing price. That suggests limited upside in the near term based on current Wall Street projections.
Rivian’s journey from IPO darling to Wall Street skeptic reflects the broader shift in EV sentiment. The stock hit $179.47 in November 2021, shortly after going public. Back then, forecasts for electric vehicle adoption looked much rosier.
The company now faces the challenge of proving it can ramp production, control costs, and deliver on its R2 promises. Wednesday’s downgrades show that some analysts think the stock has gotten ahead of those fundamentals.
Rivian shares closed at $17.50 on Wednesday while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.1%. The average analyst price target for Rivian stock stands at approximately $17 per share.
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