TLDR
- Arthur Hayes predicts Ethereum will hit $20,000 by the next US presidential election.
- Ethereum’s growing role as a public settlement layer attracts institutional players like BitMine.
- Hayes sees Solana as a distant second in the blockchain race, with most L1s collapsing.
- Layer-2 networks are expected to address Ethereum’s current privacy gaps for institutional use.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out an ambitious forecast for Ethereum’s future, predicting a significant rise in its price and institutional adoption. Hayes believes that Ethereum could reach $20,000 by the time of the next US presidential election. This bold prediction has drawn attention in the crypto community as the asset trades at around $3,200 at the moment.
Ethereum as the Institutional Default Settlement Layer
According to Hayes, traditional financial institutions are beginning to embrace Ethereum as the core settlement layer for blockchain-based activities. In his view, banks have realized that private blockchains are not suitable for secure, scalable financial applications. “These organizations finally understand that you cannot have a private blockchain; you must use a public blockchain for security and real usage,” Hayes said. He explained that the demand for stablecoins has played a major role in this shift, with banks now recognizing the necessity of public blockchain infrastructure.
He further emphasized Ethereum’s unmatched security, liquidity, and developer ecosystem as key factors making it the preferred choice for institutional adoption. Hayes suggests that this trend will drive Ethereum’s price to new highs, possibly reaching $20,000, and that 50 ETH could turn an investor into a millionaire by the 2026 US election.
Institutional Accumulation of Ethereum
Institutional interest in Ethereum is already showing significant growth. Hayes pointed to the aggressive accumulation of Ethereum by firms like BitMine, which recently purchased over $500 million worth of ETH. This wave of institutional buying has strengthened the narrative that Ethereum is poised for a major price surge. According to Hayes, exchange reserves of Ethereum are shrinking, with whales accumulating large amounts of ETH, further indicating that institutions are positioning themselves for the next major price cycle.
In line with this trend, Ethereum’s supply environment is also tightening, as exchange reserves hit multi-year lows. This, Hayes suggests, could set the stage for Ethereum’s next bull run, as institutions are increasingly using Ethereum as a treasury asset and settlement layer.
Layer-2 Networks Will Address Ethereum’s Privacy Gaps
Despite his bullish outlook, Hayes acknowledges that Ethereum currently lacks certain features that are critical for institutional adoption, particularly privacy. He noted that privacy is “the biggest thing Ethereum doesn’t have yet,” but he believes that Ethereum’s roadmap is actively working to address this gap. Layer-2 solutions, which are built on top of Ethereum, are expected to offer privacy features that will make Ethereum more suitable for large enterprises.
Hayes suggests that while Ethereum’s main layer (L1) may not currently offer sufficient privacy guarantees, it will continue to serve as the “security substrate” for activities occurring on Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism. He believes that institutions will use these Layer-2 networks for transactional activities but will rely on Ethereum L1 for security and settlement.
The Future of Public Blockchains: Ethereum and Solana’s Roles
In terms of other blockchain platforms, Hayes expects the space to consolidate around a few key players, with Ethereum emerging as the undisputed leader. He sees Solana as a distant second, citing the chain’s success due to meme coin activity in 2023 and 2024. However, Hayes does not believe Solana will match Ethereum’s institutional adoption or long-term price strength.
He dismissed other Layer-1 chains, such as Monad, as being structurally weak and likely to face a collapse after an initial pump. Hayes anticipates that the blockchain market will continue to be dominated by Ethereum, with a few select platforms like Solana maintaining a role in the ecosystem but failing to challenge Ethereum’s supremacy.
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