TLDR
- Solana’s price has fallen 47% from its recent peak, nearing the $123 support level.
- A potential Death Cross may trigger a fall toward the $100–$105 range.
- The net realized profit/loss ratio is at its lowest since June 2023.
- Historical data shows price recoveries after this metric falls below 0.1.
Solana (SOL) is nearing a critical technical setup as bearish momentum increases. The altcoin’s price is approaching a possible Death Cross, a pattern often linked with extended downtrends. Market indicators suggest that SOL could fall to $100, though historical trends point to a potential bounce.
Solana Faces Critical Price Pressure
Solana is currently trading around $127 after dropping nearly 47% from its recent local high. The price is holding slightly above a long-standing support level of $123 that has not been tested in more than seven months.
Technical indicators point toward growing downside risk. The short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) are close to forming a Death Cross. This pattern occurs when the short-term EMA falls below the long-term EMA and is often seen before a prolonged downtrend.
According to market patterns earlier this year, a similar Death Cross resulted in a 59% decline in SOL’s value from its peak. If this pattern repeats, Solana could revisit price levels near $98.
Technical Indicators Warn of Further Losses
Traders are monitoring Solana’s EMAs, which have started to mirror earlier bearish formations. The current drop has already erased a large portion of recent gains, and if the EMAs cross, it may confirm the start of a broader downtrend.
Historical analysis shows that during the first two quarters of 2025, similar setups led to considerable losses. If the trend continues, the next logical support lies between $100 and $105, signaling a possible 21.8% drop from current levels.
This scenario may unfold if Solana fails to hold the $123 support level in the coming days. A close below this level could lead to heavier selling across the broader altcoin market.
Realized Losses Suggest Possible Reversal
Solana’s net realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to its lowest point since June 2023, based on on-chain data from Glassnode. This metric tracks the difference between the price at which coins are bought and sold, offering insight into investor sentiment.
During past market corrections, such as those in March, April, and September of 2023, this ratio fell below 0.1 before the price bounced back. The same setup is forming now, indicating that the recent selling pressure may be approaching saturation.
If this pattern repeats, Solana may find support at current levels and attempt a short-term recovery. This could help limit the downside risk and allow the altcoin to regain momentum.
Recovery Attempts Face Key Resistance
Should Solana avoid a breakdown below $123, it may aim for the next resistance level at $136. A strong push above this point could shift market structure to a more stable setup.
If SOL breaks $136, the path could open to $157, a level that may invalidate the current bearish thesis. However, without improved investor confidence and broader market stability, these levels may remain out of reach in the near term.
At the moment, the trend continues to favor sellers unless market sentiment shifts quickly. For now, traders remain cautious as the risk of a drop toward $100 remains a strong possibility.
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