Fed Uncertainty Grows As December Rate Cut Odds Plunge And Bitcoin Olds Levels

TLDR

Table of Contents

Fed December rate cut odds have dropped from 98% a month ago to 30% today.
Missing October jobs data has increased uncertainty ahead of the December meeting.
Bitcoin trades near $91,700 as shifting rate expectations affect market behavior.
Fed minutes reveal deep policy divisions as officials debate the next rate move.

The outlook for a December rate cut has changed fast as traders pull back expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The chance of a cut now stands at 30%, which is much lower than the levels seen in recent weeks. The shift comes at a time when economic data is missing, policy debates are deepening, and market participants are watching how Bitcoin reacts to the changing macro environment.

Rate Cut Odds Fall Sharply Ahead of December Meeting

The CME FedWatch tool shows a strong drop in the expected rate cut for December. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut to the 3.5%–3.75% range is now 30%. This is down from 50% a day ago and a week ago. One month ago, the probability stood at 98%, showing how sharply expectations have changed.

The shift is happening during a period of low data visibility. The Labor Department confirmed it will not publish October job numbers. The shutdown has caused delays, and this absence of data makes policy planning harder for the Fed. The lack of employment figures removes a key tool used to assess economic conditions.

A policy researcher said, “Without core data, it becomes harder for the Fed to judge trends that shape rate decisions.” Market traders have also adjusted their expectations as macro signals remain unclear and data gaps widen across agencies.

Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divisions Among Policymakers

The minutes from the October meeting show sharp differences among Fed officials. Some policymakers want to pause rates to monitor slowing demand. Others say a cut may support the economy after months of tight conditions. The minutes show a debate that could affect decisions in the final months of the year.

The data blackout adds to the disagreement. Many officials rely on updated job numbers and wage data to track economic pressure. Without these reports, the debate over strategy may grow. Policy teams now face a December meeting where decisions must be made with limited information.

A senior economist noted, “The divide inside the Fed mirrors the uncertainty in the broader economy.” This mix of views has also shaped market expectations as traders wait for the next policy signals.

Bitcoin Reacts as Macro Uncertainty Builds

Bitcoin traded near $91,700 at press time, showing a 0.8% move in 24 hours. The asset has reacted to shifts in rate expectations in recent months. Lower rate odds often push traders toward risk assets, while reduced expectations can bring short pauses in momentum.

Market traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold recent levels as macro pressure increases. The cut probability is now part of wider discussions about liquidity, funding costs, and how investors handle risk during uncertain periods.

Some market players said that Bitcoin often reacts faster during weeks when economic clarity is missing. Liquidity also changes as traders adjust short-term positions around rate expectations.

What Traders Are Watching Next

Market participants now look for new guidance from the Fed ahead of the December meeting. The missing October jobs report has made forecasts harder, and traders are preparing for more cautious moves. Many expect stronger updates from other economic releases if agencies resume normal reporting schedules.

Bitcoin traders also watch the macro shift closely. The current rate outlook may affect trading ranges during the next sessions. The market now moves with both economic news and crypto-specific events, which may shape short-term direction.

The drop in rate cut odds shows how quickly expectations can change when economic data stops flowing. Traders across markets now wait for new signals while Bitcoin reacts to the evolving macro landscape.