TLDR
- Bitcoin $150K probability drops to 36% on Kalshi before April 2026.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record $186.5M outflows led by BlackRock.
- BTC trades near $107,600 as traders await clearer macro signals.
- Analysts expect a cooling phase before Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Bitcoin traders are reassessing expectations as the probability of BTC reaching $150,000 before the 2026 halving drops to 36%. Data from prediction platforms show cooling sentiment, with traders adjusting to ETF outflows and softer macro conditions. Despite the cautious tone, market participants remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value ahead of its next halving cycle.
Prediction Markets Reflect Cooling Sentiment
Data from prediction platform Kalshi shows about one in three traders expect Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by April 2026. The probability, now at 36%, marks a decline from recent highs when optimism surged as Bitcoin crossed $120,000.
According to Whale Insider, trading volume on the $150K Kalshi contract exceeded $13 million, suggesting active participation despite tempered sentiment. Rival platform Polymarket reported similar figures, with odds between 27% and 31% for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by March 2026.
Market analysts describe this shift as a “recalibration” rather than bearish momentum. “When Kalshi odds cool off, it’s recalibration,” one analyst said. “Traders are still bullish but more measured after recent corrections.”
Bitcoin ETFs Record Net Outflows
ETF data reflects a similar moderation in sentiment. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $186.5 million in net outflows on November 3. Total assets under management now stand at $143.51 billion, about 6.75% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for most of the withdrawals, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark’s ARKB showed little movement. Despite the pullback, cumulative inflows across all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs remain above $61 billion, showing ongoing institutional interest.
Analysts suggest investors may be locking in profits or waiting for stronger macro signals before re-entering. Bitcoin prices fell by about 2.9% during the same period, trading near $107,600, mirroring ETF outflows and muted trading activity.
Macro Conditions Indicate Temporary Slowdown
Research from Cointel suggests macroeconomic trends are driving the current market pause. Liquidity levels remain high, but Bitcoin’s price has stayed flat, indicating possible undervaluation compared to stablecoin supply.
The report noted that over $3.4 trillion has exited gold markets this year—an amount comparable to the combined market caps of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, and XRP. Analysts believe part of this capital could eventually shift toward digital assets as investors seek alternative hedges.
Global developments such as the upcoming U.S.-China summit and recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are also contributing to short-term volatility. Traders expect brief dips before Bitcoin attempts another upward move.
Traders Maintain Long-Term Optimism
Market analyst JV Trades said he continues to hold short positions around $124,000 and $113,000 until stronger bullish signals appear. He identified resistance zones at $108,300 and $112,000 as critical levels to watch.
Across prediction markets and ETF data, sentiment remains cautious yet hopeful. While the short-term outlook appears subdued, many traders see this phase as part of a natural consolidation cycle.
As one trader remarked, “Everyone turns bearish right before the market surprises them. Bitcoin often moves when least expected.” With the next halving less than two years away, traders appear to be preparing for renewed volatility as Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals stay firm.
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