TLDR
- Cardano whales added 50 million ADA worth $32.5M in just two days.
- RSI shows bullish divergence while ADA forms inverse head and shoulders.
- Spent Coins Age Band dropped 36%, indicating rising dormancy.
- ADA is testing $0.66 resistance with potential upside toward $0.79.
Cardano (ADA) has stayed relatively quiet, but price action and on-chain data are now showing possible signs of a shift. Large ADA holders are gradually increasing their positions, and technical indicators are suggesting a potential breakout. With the price nearing a critical resistance level and buyer activity growing, the next few sessions could decide whether ADA begins a true recovery or remains range-bound.
Whale Accumulation Indicates Steady Buying
On-chain data shows that large Cardano investors have started to increase their holdings again. According to data from Santiment, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have added around 50 million ADA in just two days. This increase brought the total holdings in this group from 13.16 billion to 13.21 billion ADA.
The added tokens are worth about $32.5 million at current prices. While this shows growing interest, the buying pace remains cautious. Stronger confirmation would require this trend to continue over more sessions with higher volume. This group of investors has a record of influencing ADA’s medium-term price direction.
At the same time, dormancy across the network is beginning to rise. The Spent Coins Age Band, a metric tracking the movement of ADA based on wallet age, has dropped by 36% since October 11. It went from 179.16 million ADA to 114.71 million ADA by October 25. This decrease means fewer coins are being traded, suggesting holders are moving less and choosing to hold.
Dormancy Levels Show Early Signs of Accumulation
Although the drop in spent coins shows early dormancy, current levels remain above the deeper ranges seen before strong rallies. The figure is still higher than the 89.22 million ADA recorded on September 22, which preceded a small upward move in price.
For a stronger accumulation signal, dormancy would need to fall further, closer to or below the 90 million ADA level. Until then, it remains a sign of slow accumulation, not full holder conviction. The lower the movement among aged coins, the more likely investors are waiting for future price increases.
Together with whale activity, the early rise in dormancy suggests that some investors expect a shift in trend. However, it remains too early to confirm if this is the start of a long-term move or a short bounce.
Technical Chart Forms Bullish Pattern Near Key Resistance
Cardano’s daily chart is showing a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is typically seen before a bullish reversal, especially when supported by volume and momentum indicators. ADA is now testing the $0.66 resistance level, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement zone.
If the price closes above this level, it could confirm a breakout, opening the path toward $0.79. That level is also the estimated target based on the size of the pattern. Above that, next potential resistance zones sit near $0.83 and $0.89.
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The neckline of the pattern is sloping downward, which means sellers are still active. However, ADA holding above the $0.60 support keeps the structure valid. If the price fails to stay above $0.60, the pattern breaks, and the next support lies near $0.50.
RSI Divergence Supports Bullish Setup
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has shown a bullish divergence. Between October 11 and October 22, ADA formed a lower low in price, while the RSI made a higher low. This signal often means that sellers are losing control while buyers begin to gain strength.
This type of divergence, especially on a daily chart, can sometimes lead to a trend reversal. It supports the pattern seen in the price chart. However, the strength of the move depends on whether ADA can break and hold above the $0.66 level in the coming sessions.
If bulls push above resistance and maintain momentum, the reversal pattern becomes valid. Otherwise, another rejection may lead to a return to lower levels around $0.50.
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