TLDR
- XRP ETF approvals delayed to late 2025 after SEC halts operations in shutdown.
- SEC must clear backlogs and legal reviews before resuming ETF decisions.
- New SEC rule removes 19b-4, may shorten future ETF approval processes.
- Polymarket shows 99% chance of XRP ETF approval by end of 2025.
The approval process for several XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been delayed following the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has paused all reviews, which has directly affected pending crypto ETF applications. Originally scheduled for October decisions, new expectations place the earliest possible approval between late November and December 2025, according to market analysts and regulatory updates.
Government Shutdown Halts SEC Operations
The U.S. government shutdown has forced the SEC to suspend most of its operations, including ETF reviews. This pause includes the evaluation of XRP ETF filings from major firms such as Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Canary Capital.
Approval deadlines for these funds were set between October 18 and October 25. With the shutdown in place, the SEC is unable to meet these timelines. As a result, decisions are being pushed back, with the earliest window now estimated toward the end of 2025.
A crypto analyst noted, “Even after the government resumes, it might take another 4 weeks to get to it. ETF likely approval is now late Nov to end of Dec.”
This delay also affects other crypto ETF filings for Solana, Cardano, and Litecoin. These were also due for review in October but have been paused for the same reasons.
SEC to Work Through Backlogs Before Resuming Reviews
Once the government reopens, the SEC will not be able to immediately return to ETF applications. The agency must first address a backlog of filings and complete required legal reviews. These steps include internal clearance, final sign-offs, and case-by-case assessments.
According to regulatory analysts, the average processing period after a shutdown is around four weeks. This would push any new reviews into late November or beyond. Despite this delay, there is still confidence that the process will move forward once operations resume.
Market data platform Polymarket now shows a 99% probability that an XRP ETF will be approved before the end of 2025. This figure reflects confidence from both retail and institutional traders despite the current hold.
New SEC Framework Could Shorten Approval Process
Although the shutdown has paused actions, recent updates to the SEC’s review framework may help speed things up once resumed. The agency has removed the 19b-4 rule requirement, which previously added an extra step to the approval process.
The revised framework now allows ETF applicants to proceed using only the S-1 filing. This change simplifies the listing process and could allow quicker responses from the SEC. Several firms have already adjusted their applications to align with the updated requirements.
Analysts believe that once the SEC reopens and clears backlogs, the new framework could help move reviews faster than under the older system.
Industry Responds to Delays
The delay has shifted expectations across the crypto ETF market. Many believed that October would be a breakthrough period for crypto ETF approvals. With the government shutdown, that timeline has changed.
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, stated that the delay was expected once the shutdown took effect. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described the situation as a “rain delay,” noting it is a pause rather than a cancellation.
While the process has slowed, interest in XRP ETFs remains strong. Multiple firms are maintaining their filings and adjusting for the new timeline. The current market outlook continues to show high confidence in eventual approval.
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