TLDR
- Bitcoin reclaims $116K Trader Realized Price, signaling a shift back into the bull phase of the cycle indicator.
- On-chain data shows the next realized resistance near $161.9K, with upper extension targets projected toward $196.5K.
- Bitcoin breaks out of a falling wedge after defending $113K support, pushing above $116K and regaining bullish momentum.
- Failure to hold $116K could send Bitcoin back toward $113K or $110K, while sustained gains target $122K–$123K resistance.
Bitcoin has regained the Trader’s Realized Price (TRP) at $116,000, a critical on-chain threshold watched closely by market participants. The move signals renewed strength after weeks of consolidation and places the cryptocurrency back into the bull phase of the cycle indicator. This shift suggests that many active traders are once again in profit, a factor that often drives stronger market participation.
The TRP flip coincides with a breakout pattern visible on the charts, further boosting confidence in the near-term outlook. Traders are now eyeing higher targets, with the $122,000 resistance zone in focus.
Trader Realized Price Regained at $116K
Bitcoin’s return above the TRP band is significant. On-chain data shows realized price bands spreading across multiple tiers, with the current market trading close to the mid-range. Reclaiming $115,600 has opened the path toward the next higher TRP band near $161,900, with the upper extension reaching $196,500.
BTC TRP 1M Chart | Source: X
These levels may act as future profit-taking zones, though they also serve as expansion markers for the ongoing bullish cycle. Historically, regaining this threshold has sparked parabolic advances in earlier cycles. The pattern suggests momentum could accelerate into the fourth quarter if conditions remain supportive.
Market Liquidity Expands Toward Q4
Furthermore, The final quarter of the year is often volatile for digital assets, and liquidity inflows could increase this trend. Favorable macro drivers, such as exchange-traded fund inflows and declining reserves on exchanges, provide additional backing for bullish continuation.
Capital rotation into Bitcoin appears to be building, with traders expecting larger moves toward the $160,000–$200,000 range. Still, caution remains necessary. On-chain realized support zones near $101,000 and $80,000 are viewed as critical buffers in the event of a pullback.
Breakout From Falling Wedge Adds Strength
In Addition, Bitcoin recently broke out of a falling wedge formation, a technical structure often considered bullish. The move followed a rebound from the $112,800–$113,200 support area, which created the base for the current upward momentum.
BTC/USD 4H Chart | Source: X
Once this level was defended, price advanced quickly through the $116,000–$117,000 resistance zone. This breakout, after a month of failed attempts, signaled strong renewed buying pressure. The measured target of the wedge projects toward the $122,000–$123,000 area, aligning with historical resistance.
Risks Remain if $116K Fails
At the Same Time, While sentiment has shifted, risks remain present. If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $116,000 breakout level, short-term retracement could follow. The $113,000 zone would then act as immediate support, with a deeper correction possibly extending toward $110,000.
Even so, the overall structure remains in favor of the bulls as long as the $113,000 level holds. Traders continue to watch closely, with the current setup suggesting that sustained strength could confirm a broader continuation rally into Q4.
Current Momentum Towards Cycle Highs
Building on, The recovery of the TRP and breakout from the wedge both point toward higher levels ahead. Bitcoin has not only flipped a major resistance into support but also restored the broader bullish structure.
If sustained, the move positions the cryptocurrency to test higher resistance levels and perhaps revisit cycle highs. Market participants are now looking for confirmation that $116,000 will hold as the new base, with attention fixed firmly on the $122,000 level next.
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