TLDR
- Shopify stock jumped 6.25% after OpenAI announced merchants can sell products directly through ChatGPT to 70 million monthly U.S. users
- Oppenheimer maintains Outperform rating with $180 price target on the e-commerce platform
- The company’s revenue grew 31% last quarter to $2.7 billion, with gross merchandise volume reaching $87.8 billion
- Stock trades at 82 times earnings, well above the S&P 500 average of 25
- Closing of the de minimis tariff loophole could slow transaction growth in upcoming quarters
Shopify shares climbed 6.25% to $149.01 on Monday following OpenAI’s announcement that U.S. merchants on the platform can now sell products directly through ChatGPT conversations. The integration gives Shopify sellers access to roughly 70 million monthly active users of the AI chatbot.
Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating and $180 price target on the stock. The firm views the ChatGPT integration as a way for Shopify to capture more market share as AI-assisted commerce grows.
OpenAI will charge a small transaction fee on completed purchases. Stripe will process the payments.
While Shopify won’t directly monetize these transactions, merchants can direct sales through their own online stores. That arrangement would benefit Shopify’s revenue.
ChatGPT already helps millions of people find what to buy. Now it can help them buy it too.
We’re introducing Instant Checkout in ChatGPT with @Etsy and @Shopify, and open-sourcing the Agentic Commerce Protocol that powers it, built with @Stripe, so more merchants and developers… pic.twitter.com/9miGZr1Yn7
— OpenAI (@OpenAI) September 29, 2025
Shop Pay could become a payment option in ChatGPT alongside Apple Pay. Oppenheimer noted Shopify might also collect partner fees from the deal.
The stock now trades near all-time highs. It has gained about 40% year to date.
Strong Recent Performance
Last quarter, Shopify posted 31% revenue growth to $2.7 billion. Gross merchandise volume on the platform increased 31% to $87.8 billion for the period ending June 30.
The company operates in 175 countries. Its software appeals to sellers with varying technical skill levels.
Shares have climbed over 1,300% since 2017. A $10,000 investment eight years ago would now be worth more than $140,000.
The stock hit a new 52-week high recently. Its current price matches levels last seen in 2021.
Shopify’s market capitalization stands at $194 billion. The company reports a gross margin of 49.21%.
Tariff Changes Create Uncertainty
The U.S. closed the de minimis loophole on August 29. The policy previously allowed low-priced goods to enter the country without tariffs.
Many Shopify merchants sell products to U.S. customers from overseas. The tariff change could reduce transaction volumes on the platform.
The impact will show up in upcoming quarterly results. The fourth quarter could be particularly telling as it includes the full three-month effect plus holiday shopping.
Investors will get an initial look at the data when the company reports its next earnings. The current quarter only partially reflects the policy change.
The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 82. That’s more than three times the S&P 500 average of 25.
When Shopify’s growth slowed in 2022, the stock dropped 75% from its peak. Investors who bought at 2021 highs are just now approaching breakeven.
Some analysts suggest waiting for a pullback before buying. The high valuation leaves little room for error if growth slows.
The de minimis loophole closure represents the biggest near-term risk to transaction growth. Cross-border sales make up a material portion of platform activity.
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