TLDR
- Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas raised his Tesla price target to $490 from $333, a 47% increase
- Tesla stock rose 33% in September, its best month since November 2024
- Q3 delivery numbers expected Thursday, with analyst checks showing higher estimates than consensus
- Energy storage business shows strong momentum from utilities and data center demand
- Stock trades near December all-time high of $489, with some analysts seeing potential for $520
Tesla stock pulled back slightly in premarket trading Tuesday despite receiving another major price target boost from Wall Street. The slight dip came after a monster month that has analysts playing catch-up with the electric vehicle maker’s share price.
Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas lifted his price target to $490 from $333 on Monday evening. He kept his Buy rating on the stock.
The analyst admitted he considered a downgrade before ultimately sticking with his bullish call. He referenced a similar debate from January where he also kept his Buy rating.
Tesla stock fell 0.9% to $439.09 in premarket trading Tuesday. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
The average price target for Tesla stock now sits around $347 according to FactSet. That’s up about $33 for the month. The stock currently trades well above that average, which is actually typical for Tesla historically.
Through Monday’s close, Tesla shares jumped 33% in September. That marks the best monthly performance since November 2024 when shares soared following Donald Trump’s presidential election win.
CEO Elon Musk campaigned for Trump, and investors initially believed the relationship would benefit Tesla. That relationship cooled, and Trump’s tax bill eliminated the $7,500 federal EV purchase credit.
Strong Q3 Deliveries Expected
Tesla will report Q3 delivery numbers this Thursday. FactSet data shows expectations around 448,000 vehicles, down roughly 3% from the 463,000 cars sold in Q3 2024.
However, Gianarikas conducted checks across 30 countries that showed higher delivery estimates than consensus. He called this a “positive break in trend” after several quarters of slower growth.
The analyst pointed to management’s commitment to new models as a potential catalyst. He believes these launches could boost global sales and help offset losses from the expired U.S. tax credits.
Gianarikas didn’t provide details on the new models. He simply described them as “interesting” and encouraged investors to watch for their launches.
Energy Storage Business Gains Traction
The analyst expressed particular optimism about Tesla’s energy storage unit. He expects stronger momentum driven by demand from utilities and hyperscale data centers.
Gianarikas wrote that energy storage will play a meaningful role in behind-the-meter solutions as reliance on the power grid declines. He pointed to Musk’s adoption of alternative on-site power for his xAI facility as evidence of this trend.
The analyst also highlighted Musk’s new compensation package. The plan sets ambitious long-term targets while ensuring his continued leadership.
If targets are met, the compensation plan could deliver substantial shareholder returns. It also provides investors with indirect exposure to Musk’s AI venture, xAI.
Gianarikas cited Musk’s track record of business achievements. He views Musk’s commitment to the company and ambitious goals as largely positive.
Tesla uses AI to train cars to drive themselves and humanoid robots to complete tasks. This AI focus has captured investor attention in recent months.
Technical Outlook Points Higher
Market technician Frank Cappelleri from CappThesis sees potential for new highs. He pointed out that momentum tends to be very strong once a major resistance zone is broken.
Resistance refers to a level where a stock has historically had trouble advancing past. Cappelleri thinks Tesla has a chance to make a new all-time high.
He’s looking at $520 as a potential target. Tesla’s previous all-time high was around $489 in December.
Cappelleri doesn’t make fundamental calls on Tesla. He focuses on stock charts and market history to understand investor sentiment.
September could become one of the ten best months ever for Tesla shares. That would require a close of $461.24, up 4.1% from Monday’s close.
Such a finish would push the monthly gain just past November 2024’s performance. Tesla’s best month ever remains May 2013, when shares rose 81%.
Coming into Tuesday, Tesla stock was up about 10% year to date. Over the past 12 months, shares have climbed 70%.
On TipRanks, TSLA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 14 Buy ratings, 12 Hold ratings, and eight Sell ratings.
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