TLDR
- Tesla reports Q3 2025 delivery numbers this week, with Wall Street expecting about 447,000 vehicles (down 3% from last year)
- Tesla stock surged 31% in September driven by AI and robotaxi excitement rather than car delivery performance
- The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expires at the end of September, which may have boosted Q3 sales but could hurt Q4
- Some analysts like Troy Teslike predict Tesla could beat estimates with 472,000 deliveries (up 2% year-over-year)
- Tesla delivered 721,000 cars in the first half of 2025, down 13% from the prior year period
Tesla will report its third-quarter delivery and production figures on Thursday. Wall Street currently expects around 447,000 vehicle deliveries for the quarter.
This would represent a 3% decline from the 463,000 cars Tesla sold in the same period last year. However, some analysts believe the company could surprise to the upside.
Tesla researcher Troy Teslike predicts deliveries closer to 472,000 vehicles. This would mark a 2% increase from last year’s third quarter.
Goldman Sachs expects Tesla to deliver 455,000 units in Q3. Deutsche Bank projects 461,500 vehicles, roughly flat year-over-year but up 20% from the previous quarter.
Even modest growth would show improvement from Tesla’s first-half performance. The company delivered 721,000 cars in the first six months of 2025, down 13% from the prior year.
AI Focus Drives Stock Performance
Tesla stock has surged 31% in September alone. Investors are increasingly focused on the company’s artificial intelligence opportunities rather than traditional car sales.
The company launched an AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. Tesla plans to expand this service across the country as quickly as possible.
The company also plans to start selling AI-trained humanoid robots in large quantities starting in 2026. This AI potential has driven several price target increases from Wall Street analysts.
RBC, Baird, and Wedbush have all raised their price targets recently. The average analyst price target sits at about $343 per share, up $30 since the end of August.
Tesla stock rose over 2% in the past five trading days. The stock gained 0.8% in pre-market trading on Monday.
Tax Credit Expiration Creates Uncertainty
Tesla sales likely received a boost from the expiring $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit. The credit expires at the end of September, eliminated in President Trump’s tax and spending plan.
Consumers rushed to purchase vehicles before losing this incentive. This created a short-term demand boost for Tesla and other EV manufacturers.
The revamped Model Y also contributed to potential delivery strength. The updated version features improved design, comfort, and new technology.
Tesla completed an intensive factory revamp earlier this year. The company retooled production specifically for the new Model Y after early 2025 production slowdowns.
Elon Musk’s recent step back from political commentary may have helped ease some consumer concerns. His controversial statements had previously affected Tesla sales in certain markets.
Six analysts reiterated Buy ratings on Tesla stock last week. Four of those analysts also raised their price targets.
According to TipRanks, Tesla stock carries a Hold consensus rating. The rating includes 15 Buy recommendations, 12 Hold ratings, and eight Sell ratings from the past three months.
The company remains profitable despite declining car sales. Tesla continues spending billions on Nvidia chips for its AI development projects.
Car sales are expected to decline for the second consecutive year. However, the AI business represents Tesla’s long-term growth strategy beyond traditional automotive manufacturing.
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