TLDR
- Baird upgraded Tesla to Buy from Hold, raising price target 71% to $548, citing a “physical AI inflection” ahead
- Goldman Sachs increased Tesla price target to $395 from $300 while maintaining Hold rating, expecting strong Q3 deliveries
- Tesla stock rose 1.1% premarket on Friday following the analyst upgrades
- Goldman expects Tesla to deliver 455,000 vehicles in Q3, above the 445,000 analyst consensus
- Tesla appears ready to expand its robo-taxi service to Las Vegas after launching in Austin in June
Tesla stock climbed 1.1% in premarket trading Friday as Wall Street analysts showed renewed confidence in the electric vehicle maker. The gains came after two separate analyst actions that highlighted different aspects of Tesla’s business prospects.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo delivered the most bullish call, upgrading Tesla to Buy from Hold. He raised his price target by 71% to $548 from $320, now the highest target on Wall Street.
Kallo cited an upcoming “physical AI inflection” as his main reasoning. This refers to Tesla’s expansion beyond traditional car manufacturing into AI-powered robots and self-driving technology.
The analyst pointed to several growth catalysts ahead. These include the expansion of Tesla’s robo-taxi service, unveiling of the Optimus humanoid robot, and growth in Tesla’s energy storage business.
Tesla’s car business has faced challenges recently. Global sales dropped 13% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
However, Kallo believes the company is shifting focus toward future technologies. He noted that Tesla is increasingly viewed as the “leader in physical AI” as it prepares for wider rollouts.
Goldman Sachs Raises Delivery Expectations
Goldman Sachs took a different approach, focusing on near-term vehicle deliveries. Analyst Mark Delaney raised his price target to $395 from $300 but kept his Hold rating.
Delaney expects Tesla to deliver 455,000 vehicles in the third quarter. This beats the Wall Street consensus of roughly 445,000 vehicles tracked by FactSet.
Tesla delivered about 384,000 cars in the second quarter of 2025. The company delivered 463,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2024.
Third-quarter U.S. electric vehicle sales have picked up recently. Buyers are rushing to purchase before the $7,500 federal tax credit expires at the end of September.
Recent Stock Performance and Market Position
Tesla stock has gained about 7% this year, underperforming broader market indices. The stock is up roughly 83% over the past 12 months.
Shares had been on a seven-day winning streak before dropping Thursday. During that streak, the stock gained about $79, or 23%.
Several factors contributed to recent gains. CEO Elon Musk purchased $1 billion worth of Tesla stock, disclosed Monday.
The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interest rate cut Wednesday also helped. Lower rates reduce monthly car payments, benefiting auto companies.
Tesla appears close to expanding its robo-taxi service to Las Vegas. The company launched the service in Austin, Texas, in June after years of development.
The average analyst price target for Tesla sits at about $334 according to FactSet. This increased from $323 about a week ago but remains below current trading levels.
Tesla often trades above consensus analyst targets, unlike most stocks. About 10% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their average target prices.
Currently, 45% of analysts covering Tesla rate the stock a Buy. The average Buy rating for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.
Musk’s proposed compensation package ties his pay to achieving specific milestones. The board proposed a $1 trillion package over the next decade based on earnings, deliveries, robotaxis, and humanoid robot production.
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