- Grayscale’s updated SEC filing raised Cardano ETF approval odds to 87%.
- ADA is retesting a wedge breakout with the price holding near $0.81.
- Stochastic RSI is near 3.14, signaling oversold conditions for ADA.
- ADA targets $1.32 and $1.80 with a potential 120% upside move.
Grayscale’s recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has pushed Cardano ETF approval odds to 87%. This development comes as Cardano (ADA) shows signs of a technical breakout, raising interest in a possible 120% price move. With institutional interest rising and technical patterns forming, ADA price continues to attract attention going into the final quarter of 2025.
ADA Retests Key Resistance as Technical Setup Holds
Cardano’s price is currently retesting the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern. This wedge has been forming since early Q2 and often signals a potential price reversal. ADA reached $1.02 before pulling back, but the price stayed within the breakout zone. The structure remains valid as long as it holds above the support range.
The 0.5 Fibonacci level near $0.85 has acted as a defense line. ADA is trading around $0.81 and continues to test the $0.79 and $0.75 support zones. These levels are key for maintaining bullish momentum. If the price pushes above $0.94, it could confirm a breakout and open a path toward the $1.32 and $1.80 targets.
Source: TradingView
According to TradingView data, the Stochastic RSI is near 3.14, which indicates that ADA is in oversold territory. This condition has previously aligned with upward moves in ADA. The current technical pattern suggests a measured move that could send the price up by nearly 120%, assuming support levels continue to hold.
Cardano ETF Approval Odds Climb After Grayscale Filing
Grayscale has amended its S-1 filing with the SEC to include a proposed Cardano Trust ETF. The update raised ADA ETF approval odds to 87%, which is an 11% increase in just one week. This filing aims to bring institutional exposure to ADA with a direct-hold structure and custody by Coinbase Custody.
The proposed ETF will track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index. It avoids leverage or derivatives, which makes it appealing to risk-averse institutional investors. These factors are seen as strong drivers of increased institutional interest in ADA, as it would allow exposure without direct token management.
This development marks another step in Grayscale’s approach to bringing more crypto trusts into regulated markets. ADA’s inclusion in this effort reflects its growing relevance among digital assets. While approval is still pending, market reaction has leaned toward optimism, with traders watching for updates.
Buyers Absorb Dips as Consolidation Continues
Despite short-term retracements, ADA’s price shows signs of strong consolidation. Buyers appear to be absorbing dips, and the price has remained stable above key support zones. This behavior is often seen in accumulation phases, where market participants build positions ahead of larger moves.
The trading volume has stayed consistent, and no sharp declines have followed the recent retracement. If current levels continue to hold, traders may consider this a base for a new rally. The $1.32 and $1.80 levels remain the next technical targets should momentum return.
The ETF news has added a bullish tone to the broader market context. If ETF approval moves forward, it could bring long-term inflows that support price appreciation. Still, traders are cautious of a break below $0.75, which could lead to lower support tests near $0.32. However, current chart patterns and market sentiment lean toward the upside.
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