Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Why Shares Jumped 5% Despite Disappointing Delivery Numbers

TLDR

Table of Contents

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, down 14% from the same period last year
Stock jumped 5% despite missing delivery estimates as numbers beat worst-case expectations
Company faces growing competition from Chinese EV makers offering cheaper models
Production exceeded deliveries at 410,244 vehicles, creating inventory buildup concerns
Tesla shares remain down 22% year-to-date, worst performance among tech megacaps

Tesla reported second-quarter delivery numbers that disappointed on the surface but provided enough relief to send shares higher. The electric vehicle maker delivered 384,122 vehicles during the three-month period ending in June.

This represents a 14% drop from the 443,956 vehicles delivered in the same quarter last year. It marks the second consecutive quarterly decline in year-over-year deliveries for the company.

Wall Street analysts had expected around 387,000 deliveries according to FactSet estimates. While Tesla fell short of these projections, the numbers came in better than some feared.

Independent researcher Troy Teslike had predicted deliveries of just 356,000 vehicles. Prediction market Kalshi forecasted around 364,000 deliveries, making the actual figure look relatively strong.

Tesla stock jumped nearly 5% following the announcement. Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management noted the report came 4% above the “whisper” number that traders were quietly expecting.

The company produced 410,244 vehicles during the quarter, outpacing deliveries by more than 26,000 units. This production-delivery gap creates an inventory buildup that could pressure margins if demand doesn’t improve.

Growing Competition Pressures

Tesla faces intensifying competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. These companies are launching newer models at lower price points, making it harder for Tesla to maintain market share.

The company produced 396,835 of its popular Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs. Combined deliveries for these two models reached 373,728 units in the second quarter.

Tesla also delivered 10,394 units of its other models, including the steel Cybertruck pickup truck. The angular vehicle has faced eight recalls since shipping began in November 2023.

Diamond Blue Cybertruck. pic.twitter.com/siDcUszHmj
— TESLA CARS ONLY.⚡ (@teslacarsonly) June 29, 2025

In the first quarter, Tesla partly blamed declining sales on customers delaying orders. Many waited for the refreshed Model Y SUV that began shipping in March.

Political Challenges Mount

CEO Elon Musk’s political activities have created additional headwinds for the company. His high-profile support for various political causes has sparked protests and boycotts.

Musk was President Donald Trump’s biggest financial backer in the 2024 election. He also endorsed Germany’s far-right AfD party, drawing criticism from various groups.

The CEO led the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative until May. His formal role with DOGE ended as his relationship with Trump began to sour.

Over the weekend, Musk criticized Trump’s multitrillion-dollar tax-and-spending package. He called for the creation of a third political party, reigniting their public feud.

Certain aspects of the proposed legislation could harm Tesla’s solar and battery business. Think tank Energy Innovation estimates the bill could reduce EV sales by roughly 100,000 vehicles per year by 2035.

Trump has threatened to end subsidies that benefit Musk’s companies, including Tesla and SpaceX. These political tensions add another layer of uncertainty for investors.

Tesla shares remain down 22% year-to-date despite Wednesday’s rally. This makes it the worst performer among tech megacap companies in 2025.

The company’s market capitalization has returned above $1 trillion following the post-earnings bounce. Tesla will discuss its second-quarter financial results with investors on July 23 after markets close.

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