TLDR
Bitcoin expected to hit $135K by Q3 2025, driven by institutional ETF inflows.
Corporate treasury buying and ETFs could disrupt typical Bitcoin halving price cycle.
Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin surpassing $200K by end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s price surge fueled by growing corporate interest and global market liquidity.
Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach new heights in the second half of 2025, with projections from Standard Chartered suggesting that the cryptocurrency could hit $135,000 by the end of Q3. The bank attributes this surge to growing corporate treasury buying and strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This forecast comes amid a shifting landscape for Bitcoin, where traditional price patterns tied to the halving cycle may not hold.
Standard Chartered’s Forecast for Bitcoin’s Price
Standard Chartered’s recent report outlines an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s price, predicting it will break $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025. The bank believes the cryptocurrency will go even higher, surpassing $200,000 by the end of the year. This projection stems from increased investment in Bitcoin, particularly from institutional investors, who have been steadily increasing their holdings.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, emphasized that the usual price decline seen after a Bitcoin halving cycle may not materialize in 2025.
He explained that while Bitcoin’s price typically experiences a drop 18 months after a halving event, the influx of ETF and corporate treasury investments could offset this trend. These factors, which were absent in previous cycles, are expected to drive Bitcoin’s growth in the coming months.
Role of Bitcoin Halving in Price Cycles
Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years, reduce the reward for mining Bitcoin by 50%. Historically, these events have led to significant price fluctuations.
Following the halving in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin’s price experienced declines about 18 months later, which raised concerns that a similar pattern could emerge after the halving in April 2024.
However, Kendrick points out that the current dynamics surrounding Bitcoin are different. He suggests that the rising interest in Bitcoin from both corporate treasuries and ETFs could break the historical trend. “We expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying,” Kendrick said. This shift could minimize the typical post-halving price correction.
The Growing Influence of ETFs and Institutional Investors
One of the key factors behind the bullish sentiment on Bitcoin is the increasing demand from institutional investors, particularly through ETFs. These funds allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency. The growth of Bitcoin ETFs has provided a pathway for more conservative investors to enter the market, further boosting demand.
Moreover, many companies are adopting Bitcoin as part of their treasury management strategy. Corporate buying of Bitcoin has surged, with notable companies diversifying their portfolios by adding the cryptocurrency. These investments are contributing to the upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, countering any potential downturns from the halving cycle.
Global Market Conditions and Bitcoin’s Outlook
Bitcoin’s strong price movement is also supported by broader market conditions. Recent reports from Bitwise and other market analysts highlight the cryptocurrency’s resilience to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties. Bitcoin has historically rebounded after global crises, such as the recent conflict between Israel and Iran, which saw Bitcoin briefly drop to $99,000 before quickly recovering.
Bitwise analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could surge by 30% in July alone, driven by institutional buying and favorable market liquidity due to global interest rate cuts. These factors are expected to set a positive backdrop for Bitcoin’s performance as it heads into the second half of 2025.
With growing corporate interest, a favorable ETF landscape, and supportive market conditions, Bitcoin’s price trajectory appears poised for significant gains in the near future. Standard Chartered’s $200,000 target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 aligns with the expectations of other major financial institutions, further strengthening the case for a continued bull run.
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