TLDR
SUI rose over 4% as it prepares for a $119 million token unlock on Monday.
The unlock represents 56% of next week’s crypto unlocks but only 1.16% of SUI’s circulating supply.
Raoul Pal forecasts SUI could become a top-five performer and potentially reach $22 if it matches Solana’s market cap.
SUI’s DEX volume dropped 50% in June after reaching $14 billion in May, affecting demand.
Technical indicators suggest potential for a breakout if SUI closes above $2.88 resistance.
Sui (SUI) gained over 4% on Friday ahead of a major token unlock set for early next week. The blockchain is planning to release $119 million worth of its token into circulation on Monday.
This new issuance makes up more than half of all the tokens set to be unlocked across several projects next week. The $119 million figure accounts for 56% of the total $212 million worth of upcoming token unlocks.
However, the amount represents only 1.16% of SUI’s circulating supply, which may limit its direct price impact.
Other crypto projects unlocking tokens next week include Optimism (OP), Kamino Finance (KMNO), and Artificial Superintelligence (FET), with combined unlocks of $30 million.
Technical Setup Suggests Resistance Test
SUI is currently trading within a descending channel. Price is testing resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $2.88.
A confirmed move above $2.88 could open the path to $3.55 in the short term. If price fails to hold, the next support zone is around $2.29.
The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicators are both below neutral, but trending higher. This signals weakening bearish momentum.
SUI’s price movement also reflects broader market conditions, with mixed sentiment in altcoins overall.
Raoul Pal’s Outlook and DeFi Volume Shifts
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, said he expects SUI to become one of the top-performing tokens in the second half of 2025.
Longer term… pic.twitter.com/qNoIau2Hmk
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) June 26, 2025
In a recent statement, he said SUI could consolidate under $3.5 before breaking higher—especially if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high.
Pal also noted that if SUI matched Solana’s market cap of $77 billion, its price could theoretically hit $22.9. However, recent market data show SUI has underperformed Solana by 26% since May.
The SUI/SOL ratio has dropped to 0.0158, near a critical support level.
A rebound from this ratio could lead to a 50%+ gain in relative performance.
SUI saw strong demand earlier in Q2 when DeFi activity spiked. April and May saw decentralized exchange volume reach $11 billion and $14 billion, respectively.
June, however, saw that volume fall by half to $7 billion. This reduction has affected token demand.
The decrease in DEX activity correlates with SUI’s price drop from over $4 to around $2.2. Despite this, technical charts indicate SUI is nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that often leads to breakout moves.
As of June 28, SUI is trading slightly above $2.80, holding gains from the past 24 hours and awaiting the effect of Monday’s token unlock.
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