Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Analyst Predicts $220K to $330K Peak by End of 2025

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bitcoin analyst Sminston With predicts BTC price could reach $220,000 to $330,000 by end of 2025 using power law model
The model shows Bitcoin typically peaks 2-3 times above its power law trendline during market cycles
Long-term Bitcoin holders moved $4.02 billion in BTC, the largest spending since February 2025
Bitcoin continues to show strong cyclical volatility, contradicting beliefs that price swings are softening
BTC currently trades around $108,000 after seven consecutive green weeks, potentially nearing pullback

Bitcoin researcher Sminston With has released analysis suggesting BTC could gain 100% to 200% from current levels. His model projects a cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000 before the end of 2025.

The analysis uses a 365-day simple moving average aligned with a power law model. This model shows Bitcoin’s price follows predictable patterns over time, different from exponential growth models used for stocks.

But yes, I'm sure this cycle has peaked. 🙄
– – –
Bitcoin cycles @ power law fit, a la 365-day SMA
At ~$110,000/coin today, the 365-dSMA is only touching the trendline; history shows each cycle moving 2-3x higher than this.
Have a nice day! pic.twitter.com/jH51joDEIl
— Sminston With (@sminston_with) May 27, 2025

With Bitcoin trading around $110,000 on May 27, the power law analysis reveals historical patterns. The 365-day SMA typically peaks 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline in each market cycle.

This forecast aligns with past Bitcoin behavior during bullish phases. The cryptocurrency has consistently overshot this trendline during previous cycles.

A second chart in With’s analysis shows Bitcoin’s price deviation from the power law fit. The data reveals steady cyclical volatility without exponential decay in peaks.

This contradicts common beliefs that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less extreme. The analysis suggests Bitcoin’s volatility remains a core characteristic of the asset.

Historical Accuracy and Cycle Analysis

In Q3 2024, With correctly predicted Bitcoin would reach six figures by January 2025. At that time, BTC was trading around $60,000.

The researcher examined each decaying peak by studying BTC’s price at cycle highs. A decaying period occurs when returns decline as opportunities become widely adopted.

With has provided quarter-on-quarter price targets for 2025 based on this decaying peak analysis. However, he warns his study covers only four market cycles and requires skepticism.

Long-Term Holder Activity

Bitcoin long-term holders have transferred $4.02 billion in BTC recently. This represents the largest spending volume from 1-to-5-year cohorts since February 2025, according to Glassnode data.

The 3-to-5-year cohort drove most of this activity with $2.16 billion in transfers. This ranks as the fifth-largest spending event in the current cycle.

The 2-to-3-year cohort contributed $1.41 billion to the total. The 1-to-2-year group added $450 million in spending volume.

Historical data shows long-term holder spending often coincides with price peaks. This suggests profit-taking behavior as Bitcoin struggles to hold above $110,000.

Sharp price movements could follow if this activity increases BTC exchange reserves. Currently, total Bitcoin held on exchanges continues declining.

From a technical view, Bitcoin has been setting higher highs and lows since bottoming at $74,500. Each time after new highs, BTC has formed sideways ranges before breaking out.

The current correction follows this pattern with recent local lows at $107,300. These levels were previously local highs 10 days earlier.

Anonymous crypto trader TXMC noted Bitcoin could be nearing the end of a green weekly streak. Seven to eight consecutive green weeks represent the longest streaks Bitcoin has managed since 2013 before pulling back.

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