Key Takeaways
- Cardano currently changes hands between $0.161 and $0.163, experiencing mild downward pressure from elevated short interest
- Major holders controlling 100,000 to 100 million ADA tokens have amassed 25.65 billion ADA—the largest accumulation since early February 2023
- Network upgrade Van Rossem goes live July 18, introducing reduced fees and enhanced smart contract capabilities
- Open interest in ADA futures climbed to a range of $421–$445 million, while the long-short ratio registered 0.58, reflecting bearish trader sentiment
- Critical liquidity zones around $0.160 and $0.170 represent inflection points that may determine ADA’s near-term trajectory
Cardano (ADA) continues to hover in the $0.161–$0.163 range during mid-July trading on July 16–17, registering a modest decline of approximately 1.39% as bearish positions maintain dominance just days before a significant protocol enhancement.
On July 16, ADA established an intraday floor at $0.1611 and reached a ceiling of $0.1664, retreating from its early July summit near the $0.195 mark.
While price action shows weakness, substantial token holders are silently increasing exposure. Addresses containing between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have expanded their combined holdings to 25.65 billion tokens—representing the most significant concentration witnessed since February 2023.
Retail participation presents a contrasting narrative. Wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA collectively own approximately 0.7% less compared to four months prior, highlighting divergent behavior between institutional and retail cohorts.
Futures market metrics suggest near-term pessimism. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s weighted funding rate registered -0.0067%, indicating short holders were compensating long position traders. The ratio of long-to-short positions measured 0.58, while total open interest increased 4% to approximately $421–$445 million.
Van Rossem Upgrade: Technical Enhancements Ahead
The Van Rossem hard fork received governance approval on July 13 and is scheduled for deployment on July 18. Intersect, the member-driven organization managing Cardano’s ecosystem development, has issued advisories for all node operators and infrastructure participants to implement necessary software updates prior to activation.
This upgrade will deploy enhanced Plutus capabilities while simultaneously reducing computational costs, enabling more economical transaction processing and decentralized application execution across the Cardano network. Van Rossem also establishes foundational infrastructure for Leios, an ambitious throughput expansion initiative targeted for completion before 2026’s conclusion that seeks to dramatically boost network capacity.
From a chart perspective, ADA remains positioned beneath Murrey Math resistance located at $0.1709 on daily timeframes. The Relative Strength Index currently reads between 44 and 46.92, indicating neutral-to-mildly-bearish momentum conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator displays only marginal positive divergence.
Critical Support and Resistance Zones
Overhead resistance barriers emerge at $0.173 (representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), $0.179 (50-day exponential moving average), and a more substantial zone spanning $0.195–$0.207. Support foundations hold near $0.150, with the June 25 bottom at $0.1382 positioned further below.
CoinGlass liquidation mapping reveals concentrated liquidity between $0.160 and $0.161, situated immediately beneath present valuation. Another significant cluster appears around $0.170. Breakdown below $0.160 would likely cascade long position liquidations, potentially accelerating ADA toward $0.1465. Conversely, breakthrough above $0.170 could force short covering and enable recovery momentum.
Market analyst Celal Kucuker shared via X platform that he anticipates Cardano achieving a fresh all-time peak at $5, referencing bullish divergence patterns on weekly RSI timeframes and characterizing current levels as accumulation territory. His projection calls for exponential upward movement initiating from present price ranges.
ADA continues trading beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages positioned at $0.179, $0.208, and $0.276 respectively, validating that the prevailing downtrend structure remains established ahead of the July 18 protocol activation.
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