Key Takeaways
- ASML delivered Q2 2026 performance characterized as “triple happiness,” exceeding expectations across revenue, capacity expansion, and profit margins.
- Bernstein increased its price target to €2,500—the highest among Wall Street analysts—while maintaining its Outperform recommendation.
- Barclays boosted its target from €2,000 to €2,400, keeping its Overweight stance intact.
- The company elevated its 2026 full-year net sales forecast to a range of €43B–€45B, significantly above the previous €36B–€40B projection.
- Wedbush highlights that improved 2027 projections signal robust demand for cutting-edge logic chips and DRAM supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure.
ASML unveiled second-quarter 2026 financial results that surpassed expectations on every metric, triggering a wave of analyst target increases and rating affirmations on Wednesday.
Shares climbed more than 2% during Wednesday’s trading session in response to the announcement, although they retreated 1.8% in Thursday’s premarket activity.
Bernstein’s semiconductor analyst David Dai elevated his price objective to €2,500 from €2,300—establishing the highest target among all tracked analysts—while retaining an Outperform rating. He characterized the quarterly performance as delivering “triple happiness.”
Dai identified three key catalysts. The first centers on ASML‘s plan to expand Low NA EUV and ArFi manufacturing capacity by 30% annually throughout 2027 and 2028. The company anticipates DUV capacity will reach 220 units by 2028, surpassing previous projections.
The second factor involves pricing power. Management commentary suggests EUV average selling prices will increase by 10% during 2027, driven by Low NA EUV throughput gains of 45% year-over-year against 30% capacity expansion. An additional high-single-digit price increase is anticipated for 2028.
The third element concerns profitability metrics that exceeded forecasts. ASML provided guidance for a 56% gross margin during the second half of 2026, substantially above the 52.6% consensus projection.
Bernstein revised its revenue projections for 2027 and 2028 upward to €56 billion and €72 billion respectively. Earnings per share estimates were adjusted to €53.6 and €75.3, with the 2028 figure representing a 37% premium over consensus expectations.
Barclays Elevates Target, Emphasizes Margin Strength and China Rebound
Barclays semiconductor analyst Simon Coles similarly increased his price target, advancing it to €2,400 from €2,000, while maintaining an Overweight rating.
Coles identified gross margins as “the major positive this quarter,” attributable to rebounding China DUV demand, strengthening EUV pricing dynamics, and robust performance in the system upgrades segment.
Barclays increased its 2026 revenue projections by 11% and 2027 estimates by 5%. The firm observed that ASML shares have surged approximately 150% since September 2025.
Annual 2026 Outlook Significantly Increased
ASML elevated its complete 2026 fiscal year net sales guidance to a range spanning €43 billion to €45 billion. This represents a substantial increase from the previous projection of €36 billion to €40 billion and considerably exceeds the analyst consensus estimate of €39.3 billion.
The upgraded 2027 outlook also captured the attention of Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson.
Bryson stated that the guidance enhancement, combined with a potential increase in 2028 EUV system deployments, “aligns with the robust demand we’re observing for both advanced logic semiconductors and DRAM supporting AI infrastructure development.”
He emphasized that elevated capital expenditure levels in 2027 are projected to generate increased production output during late 2027 and early 2028, particularly within the memory segment. He acknowledged some uncertainty regarding the timing of supply-demand equilibrium, considering persistent expenditure growth.
ASML currently projects full-year 2026 total net sales between €43B and €45B, compared with its previous forecast of €36B–€40B and above the €39.3B average analyst estimate.
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