Key Highlights
- Tesla shares declined approximately 1% in premarket hours to $403.56 on Monday
- The automaker dismantled Model S and Model X assembly lines at Fremont to allocate space for Optimus humanoid robot production
- Second quarter deliveries reached 480,100 vehicles, surpassing analyst consensus of 406,000 units
- Jefferies upgraded its price target from $375 to $400, keeping a Hold rating
- Market participants anticipate Optimus production updates during the July 22 earnings announcement
Tesla shares experienced a decline of approximately 1% to $403.56 during premarket hours on Monday, extending a challenging year that has witnessed the stock drop nearly 9% in 2026, although it remains approximately 30% above levels from a year ago.
The downturn arrives as market participants await more tangible developments regarding Tesla’s artificial intelligence initiatives, encompassing its humanoid robot Optimus and its autonomous taxi deployment.
Last Friday, Tesla released footage documenting the complete dismantling of its Model S and Model X assembly operations at its Fremont, California manufacturing facility. The removal process was finalized in less than seven weeks. The newly available manufacturing area will now serve Optimus robot production.
Tesla initially disclosed intentions to discontinue Model S and X manufacturing in January, with CEO Elon Musk characterizing the robotics venture as a multi-trillion-dollar market opportunity. The decision underscores the company’s substantial commitment to Optimus as its future primary revenue source.
Despite the intensive groundwork, Tesla has yet to launch Optimus for commercial sale. Competing humanoid robotics companies, including China’s Unitree, are consistently sharing development updates, intensifying expectations for Tesla to demonstrate tangible advancement.
Second Quarter Deliveries Surpass Projections
Tesla reported deliveries of 480,100 vehicles during Q2 2026, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of approximately 380,700 units and JPMorgan’s projection of 420,000. This represents 25% growth compared to the previous year.
Model 3 and Model Y represented 467,800 of total deliveries. The “Others” segment — encompassing Cybertruck and additional models — recorded 12,364 deliveries.
Following the delivery performance, Jefferies increased its price target on TSLA from $375 to $400, maintaining its Hold rating. The firm elevated its Q2 EBIT projection to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin, and increased future-year EBIT forecasts by roughly 6%.
Jefferies also increased its automotive revenue projection for the quarter to $21 billion, incorporating $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million from leasing operations. Total group revenue is projected at $28.7 billion.
For fiscal year 2026, Jefferies elevated its EBIT forecast by 4% to $6.2 billion. The firm maintained its free cash flow outflow projection at approximately $7.5 billion, accounting for capital expenditures around $23 billion.
Upcoming Catalyst: July 22 Earnings Release
JPMorgan retained a Neutral rating with a $475 price objective following the delivery figures. RBC Capital advanced further, raising its target to $500, incorporating a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario.
Morgan Stanley preserved its Equalweight rating with a $415 target, highlighting Tesla’s recent robotaxi deployment in Miami as a noteworthy development.
Tesla’s autonomous taxi service, initially introduced in Austin during June 2025, continues operating in a restricted number of locations and remains considerably behind Alphabet’s Waymo in operational scope.
Attention now shifts to Tesla’s Q2 earnings announcement on July 22, where market participants anticipate details regarding Optimus production schedules and the newest version of the humanoid robot.
Seven analysts have already increased earnings projections prior to the announcement, according to InvestingPro.
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