Key Highlights
- Equity futures advanced Thursday following renewed US military operations targeting Iran
- Bitcoin maintained its position above $62,000, registering a 1.2% daily decline but posting a 1.6% weekly gain
- Gold continued its downward trajectory for the fourth consecutive session while Brent crude extended gains for a third day, advancing 1% to reach $78.80 per barrel
- Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate increase shifted from December to October
- Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed indicator rose to 27, breaking a 40-day streak in extreme fear territory
Equity futures showed positive momentum Thursday morning as the United States executed additional military operations against Iranian targets.
Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 each gained 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.3%.
Late Wednesday, US military officials confirmed they had “initiated further strikes against Iran designed to continue degrading their capability to threaten maritime freedom in the Strait of Hormuz.”
President Trump announced Wednesday that the ceasefire arrangement between the nations was “over.” He additionally suggested the potential implementation of a US blockade targeting the Strait of Hormuz.
Equity markets finished Wednesday with mixed results after surrendering earlier advances. Energy prices surged in response to Trump’s statements.
Energy Advances, Precious Metals Retreat
Brent crude gained 1% to reach $78.80 per barrel, marking its third consecutive session of increases.
Gold declined for a fourth straight session, hovering around $4,060 per ounce. Rising interest rate expectations are pressuring the precious metal, which becomes less attractive when cash yields increase.
Market participants have adjusted their Federal Reserve rate hike projections, now anticipating an October move rather than December.
Cryptocurrency Markets Demonstrate Stability
Bitcoin was trading at $62,009, showing a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours while maintaining a 1.6% weekly increase.
Ether was positioned at $1,730, down 1.2% daily but posting a 5.7% gain across seven sessions.
Solana emerged as the underperformer, changing hands at $77.25 with a 1.8% daily loss and 1.7% weekly decline. XRP decreased 0.7% to $1.09.
Bitcoin’s response to the geopolitical tensions has been relatively subdued. Historically, Strait of Hormuz-related news could trigger 5% single-day declines in Bitcoin. This week’s movement registered only 1.2%.
This behavioral pattern has persisted since February. Each successive escalation has generated a diminished price reaction compared to previous episodes.
Market participants appear to be interpreting this as an interest rate event rather than crypto-specific volatility. Bitcoin is demonstrating stronger correlation with rate expectations than oil price movements.
The critical support level remains at $60,000. Bitcoin has maintained this threshold despite simultaneous rate repricing, energy market disruptions, and bond market volatility.
The Fear and Greed index improved to 27 Thursday, concluding 40 consecutive days within extreme fear territory. The indicator hasn’t sustained readings above 50 since November.
Government debt instruments in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand also declined Thursday, continuing Wednesday’s worldwide bond market retreat. Two-year Treasury yields approached their 2026 peaks.
Market observers are also monitoring the AI semiconductor sector. SK Hynix is scheduled to complete its IPO Friday, providing markets with updated insights into chip demand following June’s sector correction.
If Bitcoin continues holding above $60,000 through additional escalations while gold maintains its decline, it would strengthen the case that markets are viewing cryptocurrency primarily as a rate-sensitive instrument rather than a risk hedge.
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