Bitcoin (BTC) Slides Under $62K as Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices Escalate

Key Highlights

Table of Contents

BTC declined 2.1% to approximately $62,115 following President Trump’s announcement that the US-Iran ceasefire has ended
Crude oil markets rallied, with Brent briefly exceeding $80 per barrel
Crypto analyst Michaël Van de Poppe identified $61,000 as a critical support level
Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed divided opinions on interest rate policy, increasing pressure on volatile assets
Bitcoin ETF products recorded three consecutive days of positive net flows despite market weakness

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization experienced a decline exceeding 2% on Wednesday as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran disrupted global financial markets and triggered a significant rally in energy commodities.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Bitcoin retreated to approximately $62,115 after achieving levels above $64,600 earlier during the trading week. The downward movement accelerated following remarks by President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, where he declared the ceasefire had concluded.

Following attacks on three commercial petroleum tankers near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, the United States military conducted strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday. Tehran retaliated with counter-strikes of its own. President Trump issued a warning that Iran would face additional strikes “hard again tonight,” which the US military subsequently confirmed had been executed.

BREAKING: US announces it has hit 90 Iranian military targets in tonight’s strikes on Iran, per CENTCOM.

US strikes targeted Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along… pic.twitter.com/NgFiATDLMH

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 9, 2026

The administration announced consideration of reinstating a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. Additionally, Washington revoked a general license that had previously permitted Iranian oil production and international sales.

Brent crude oil futures momentarily surpassed the $80 per barrel threshold, marking their highest valuation since June 22. Meanwhile, US WTI crude climbed above $75 per barrel during the session.

Central Bank Policy Creates Additional Headwinds

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June 16-17 policy meeting on Wednesday, revealing significant disagreement among committee members regarding the appropriate trajectory for monetary policy. Several participants advocated for an immediate rate increase.

The majority of participants identified multiple scenarios where inflationary pressures could remain persistent, citing potential energy supply disruptions stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts, demand pressures related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, and ongoing tariff impacts. According to CME FedWatch data, market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate increase at the upcoming September meeting. On prediction market Kalshi, users estimate a 55% probability of a rate hike occurring sometime in 2026.

Elevated interest rate expectations typically create headwinds for risk-oriented assets including digital currencies.

Prominent crypto analyst and trader Michaël Van de Poppe shared his perspective on X, suggesting Bitcoin might test the $61,000 level. He elaborated: “This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we’re in talks again. And the markets reverse.” In previous commentary, he had expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s price structure provided it maintained levels above $60,000.

I’m expecting to see:

– $BTC‘s low of $61,000 to be tested.
– Oil to run higher.
– $NQ to drop further.

This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we’re in talks again.

And the markets reverse.

It’s the same with this man in Office. https://t.co/o2E21SvzwV

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 8, 2026

Technical analyst Ted highlighted on X that Bitcoin had developed a hidden bearish divergence pattern on its daily chart, cautioning: “$BTC has formed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $62,500 soon, or else things could get ugly.”

$BTC has formed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin needs to reclaim $62,500 soon, or else things could get ugly. pic.twitter.com/CVFCCyRxGN

— Ted (@TedPillows) July 8, 2026

Investment Vehicle Inflows Remain Constructive

Notwithstanding the price decline, US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds registered three consecutive sessions of net positive flows extending through Tuesday, based on SoSoValue tracking data. This trend helped counteract a preceding period of net redemptions and bolstered Bitcoin’s rebound from late-June price lows.

According to analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin has traded beneath its True Market Mean valuation of $76,600 and below the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for approximately five months. Daily ETF trading volumes ranging between $650 million and $950 million represent roughly an 80% decrease from the peak volumes observed in October 2025.

Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Deep Value, but Bottom Confirmation Signals Are Still Missing

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has traded below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for about five months, keeping it in deep value territory… pic.twitter.com/TJBNQUi7uk

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 8, 2026

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