Key Takeaways
- NBIS shares advanced nearly 3% during Monday’s premarket session, hitting $222.00
- The stock has delivered a 124.1% gain over the last half-year, crushing the S&P 500’s 8.9% return
- First quarter 2026 revenues reached $399 million, representing a 684% year-over-year jump
- Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 was increased to a range of $20Bâ$25B to support expansion
- Analyst consensus stands at Buy, with an average target price of $213.89
Shares of Nebius Group (NBIS) advanced nearly 3% in Monday’s premarket session, touching $222.00, as capital flowed back into high-octane AI infrastructure companies. The broader market showed strength, with Nasdaq futures climbing 1.22% and S&P 500 futures adding 0.42%, creating favorable conditions for the advance.
Over the past six months, the stock has delivered an explosive 124.1% return, drastically outperforming the S&P 500’s 8.9% advance and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 13.2% climb. By comparison, Microsoft dropped 18.9% while CoreWeave managed only a 5.9% increase during the identical timeframe.
Monday’s uptick follows a recent retreat from NBIS’s 52-week peak of $299.86, recorded in June. The shares are currently trading 11.1% beneath their 20-day moving average of $249.11, indicating that Monday’s price action represents more of a bounce than a fresh breakout.
From a technical perspective, NBIS remains positioned above its 50-day simple moving average of $215.09 and significantly above its 200-day SMA at $132.94. Key resistance appears near $233.50, while support is identified around $200.50. The MACD indicator continues to trade below its signal line, suggesting momentum traders should proceed with caution.
Exceptional First Quarter Performance
The first quarter of 2026 delivered impressive results across the board. Consolidated group revenues soared 684% year-over-year to reach $399 million. The flagship Nebius AI division expanded 841% and achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $1.9 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA margin for the entire group registered at 32%, while the Nebius AI segment specifically posted a robust 45% margin. The company’s financial position was significantly strengthened through a $4.3 billion convertible debt offering and a $2 billion equity injection from NVIDIA.
Cash and cash equivalents now total $9.3 billion. Company leadership reaffirmed full-year 2026 projections calling for group revenues between $3B and $3.4B, with annualized run-rate revenues reaching $7Bâ$9B and an adjusted EBITDA margin hovering around 40%.
Contracted power capacity expanded from 2 gigawatts to more than 3.5 GW during Q1, with management targeting 4 GW by year-end. A newly secured Pennsylvania facility is expected to contribute an additional 1.2 GW once it reaches full operational status.
Capital Spending Increases, Near-Term Margin Pressure Expected
Nebius elevated its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $20Bâ$25B, revised upward from the prior $16Bâ$20B range. Company executives explained that the increased investment supports 2027 capacity expansion already secured through customer agreements.
Profitability metrics are anticipated to compress during the second quarter as infrastructure investments are recognized ahead of corresponding revenue generation. Management expects margins to rebound to Q1 levels by the third quarter and to strengthen further in Q4.
Sales pipeline activity surged 3.5 times sequentially in the first quarter. Customer demand continues to significantly exceed available infrastructure, with clients increasingly providing advance payments to lock in future GPU allocation.
Regarding valuation metrics, NBIS currently trades at a price-to-book ratio of 7.53x compared to the industry benchmark of 3.91x. The company is scheduled to report earnings on August 6, with Wall Street analysts forecasting a loss of 73 cents per share alongside revenue of $576.67 million.
Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a $280 price objective. BNP Paribas initiated coverage with a Neutral stance at $255. DA Davidson holds a Neutral rating at $250. The consensus average target price stands at $213.89, which sits below the current trading level.
Zacks currently assigns NBIS a Hold rating (Rank #3).
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