Key Takeaways
- XRP advanced 3% to reach an intraday peak of $1.11 on July 3, bouncing back from $1.02 seen on July 1
- The Supertrend indicator triggered its first buy signal since mid-June, with the previous signal leading to a 14% price surge
- Nearly $7 million in XRP ETF inflows returned on Thursday following two consecutive days of capital withdrawals
- Ripple initiated European payment operations under MiCA’s provisional CASP authorization structure
- Critical resistance zones lie between $1.11–$1.15, while Supertrend support is positioned around $1.05
XRP has successfully regained ground above the $1.10 threshold following a challenging opening to July. The digital asset touched an intraday peak of $1.11 on July 3, representing approximately a 3% gain from the $1.02 bottom established just 48 hours earlier.
This resurgence arrives as multiple bullish catalysts have converged simultaneously — revitalized ETF purchasing activity, a favorable technical indicator, and additional tailwinds from Ripple’s strategic expansion into European territories.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted via X on July 3 that the Supertrend indicator had generated a buy signal for XRP for the first time since the middle of June. Martinez observed: “The last buy signal preceded a 14% rally.” He further emphasized that this same technical tool accurately forecasted the previous 19% and 16% downward movements, lending credibility to the current bullish indication.
ETF capital flows have also reversed course after a temporary interruption. Following two straight days of capital withdrawals, US-based XRP exchange-traded funds registered nearly $7 million in fresh inflows on Thursday. Aggregate inflows have now reached $1.49 billion, climbing from $1.43 billion recorded on June 1. Total assets under management currently average $988 million.
Ripple’s entrance into European markets contributed additional bullish sentiment. Ripple Payments commenced operations under provisional Crypto-Asset Service Provider authorization through the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. This development arrived as several competing platforms reduced their European service offerings to satisfy MiCA compliance standards.
Market participants also dismissed concerns surrounding Ripple’s routine monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, acknowledging that historically the majority of unlocked tokens are returned to escrow rather than distributed into circulation.
Technical Analysis Suggests Upward Trajectory
On the daily timeframe, XRP has pierced through a descending trendline that had consistently capped rallies since the final week of May. The breakout successfully recaptured the $1.10 threshold and brought the $1.12 resistance area into immediate focus.
The MACD indicator displays a bullish crossover accompanied by expanding positive histogram bars. The RSI currently registers in the mid-60s — demonstrating strength without entering overbought territory.
XRP is also positioned above both its 50-day EMA at $1.07 and 100-day EMA at $1.09. The upper Bollinger Band near $1.11 represents the immediate resistance level, while the 200-day EMA is situated at $1.14.
Short Squeeze Scenario Developing
CoinGlass liquidation metrics reveal a concentrated grouping of short positions positioned just above the current trading range, specifically between $1.11 and $1.12. XRP has already started probing into that zone.
An additional cluster of leveraged short positions exists near $1.14. Should buying momentum persist, forced liquidations of short positions could propel prices higher toward that threshold.
Futures Open Interest registered 2.2 billion XRP on Friday, marginally higher from 2.18 billion recorded the previous day, though remaining beneath the June maximum of 2.28 billion XRP.
On-chain analytics from Santiment indicate that XRP’s average trading returns have declined to their lowest levels in approximately 12 years, leaving numerous holders in unrealized loss positions.
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