Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer maintained its Perform rating on Tesla (TSLA) while keeping a neutral outlook
- The firm increased its 2026 capital expenditure projection to $29.4Bā25% higher than the Street’s $23.5B consensus
- According to Oppenheimer, Tesla’s investment narrative is pivoting toward Physical AI dominance
- The firm adjusted marketable securities projections upward, accounting for approximately $2.5B in gains from Tesla’s SpaceX stake
- Oppenheimer anticipates positive trading momentum heading into Q2 2026 earnings as capital deployment comes into focus
Tesla (TSLA) ended Thursday’s session at $191.82, retreating 4.95%.
Oppenheimer maintained its Perform rating on Tesla this Thursday, though the headline-grabbing development was a substantial upward adjustment to the firm’s capital expenditure projections for the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence powerhouse.
The firm’s new forecast anticipates Tesla will deploy $29.4 billion in capital expenditures throughout 2026ārepresenting a significant 25% premium over Wall Street’s consensus projection of $23.5 billion. This considerable divergence underscores Oppenheimer’s conviction that Tesla is ramping up investments across two critical domains: Cortex infrastructure and Terafab development.
Cortex represents Tesla’s AI training supercomputer infrastructure. Terafab encompasses Tesla’s ambitious high-velocity manufacturing initiative. Both components anchor what Oppenheimer now characterizes as Tesla’s “Physical AI” vision.
While the Perform rating indicates Oppenheimer isn’t advising clients to take buy or sell positionsāessentially a neutral stanceāthe analyst note clearly emphasizes that Tesla’s capital spending trajectory warrants close attention.
SpaceX Stake Boosts Balance Sheet Outlook
Oppenheimer also revised upward its projections for Tesla’s marketable securities holdings. The catalyst: an increase in the valuation of Tesla’s ownership position in SpaceX, which the firm estimates has generated approximately $2.5 billion in unrealized gains following SpaceX’s public offering earlier this year.
SpaceX secured $75 billion through its IPO, with an additional $10.7 billion raised when underwriters fully exercised their overallotment optionāpositioning it among the most substantial technology public offerings in history. Tesla maintained an equity stake, and that holding has appreciated considerably.
SpaceX has also disclosed a definitive merger agreement to acquire Anysphere, Inc. through an all-stock transaction, facilitated via subsidiary X67 Inc. Trading in SpaceX options recently commenced as well, expanding investment exposure opportunities.
The Shifting Investment Narrative
Oppenheimer indicates Tesla’s investment story has undergone a transformation. The firm notes that the focus has migrated away from traditional metrics like EV unit volumes or profit margins. Instead, investors are increasingly zeroing in on Tesla’s capacity to scale solar and energy storage solutions while accelerating development cycles for its AI infrastructure.
The analyst note implies that capital allocation itself is emerging as a forward-looking indicatorāsuggesting that Tesla’s spending patterns may provide more insight into its AI trajectory than quarterly vehicle delivery figures.
With a market capitalization reaching $2.53 trillion, Tesla’s market presence commands attention. Current analyst price targets span a wide range from $62 to $401, illustrating the substantial disagreement among Wall Street professionals regarding the company’s valuation trajectory.
Oppenheimer projects positive trading momentum approaching Q2 2026 earnings, as market participants assess whether capital investments are yielding tangible advancement.
Tesla closed Thursday’s trading at $191.82, registering a decline of approximately 4.95% for the session.
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