TLDR
- Digital rails may help banks cut costs, speed settlement, and serve wholesale clients more efficiently.
- Morgan Stanley expects early investment in gateways, tokenized rails, and ecosystem support to protect revenue.
- The report sees limited chances of crypto replacing major trading desks or bank deposits soon.
- Payments, collateral, funding, foreign exchange, trade finance, and investor services may move faster onto rails.
- Tokenized money could form the base layer for wider wholesale activity across connected markets globally.
Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman’s 2026 wholesale banking outlook presents digital rails as a growth opening for early banks. The report, “Digital Rails, Real Economics,” says wholesale banks enter 2026 after record 2025 revenue of $660 billion.
It also projects industry revenue of $650 billion to $850 billion by 2030 under three economic paths. The document treats infrastructure change as an opportunity, while keeping deposit disruption as a limited case.
Digital rails offer a new wholesale banking opening
The report points to digital rails, not crypto prices, as the area banks may reshape. It says current business lines can move onto faster infrastructure over time. These lines include payments, collateral, liquidity, servicing, and parts of foreign exchange.
In the base case, more than $200 billion in revenue touches businesses exposed to digital rails. Oliver Wyman analysis places $46 billion at risk from lower margins and share shifts. However, the same shift can also create room for prepared banks to win clients.
Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman identify three layers where banks may build an edge. These are trusted client gateways, tokenized payment rails, and support for digital asset firms. The report frames early spending as a way to defend revenue and add new services.
Tokenized money may support payments and settlement
The report treats digital assets as three linked trends in finance. It names crypto, tokenized money, and technology for issuing and moving assets. That technology includes distributed ledgers and tokenization for existing or emerging instruments.
It sees tokenized money as a possible base for wider wholesale activity. This category includes stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and central bank digital currencies. The report says these tools may support broader movement across connected use cases.
Still, it does not expect stablecoins to replace traditional deposits at scale. It describes that outcome as a “low probability” case in bank funding. Instead, tokenized money could serve areas where speed and access matter more.
Cross-border payments may see some of the clearest use cases. Digital rails can allow faster settlement, lower costs, and 24-hour access. Banks with strong controls may offer those features through familiar client channels.
Early movers could protect share by 2030
The outlook says wholesale banks remain resilient across several economic paths. It projects 2030 returns on equity between 12% and 20% on average. The range depends on macro conditions, capital rules, artificial intelligence, and digital asset adoption.
The report does not present crypto as a replacement for core banking. It estimates institutional crypto-related capital markets revenue could reach “at most $16.4 billion” by 2030. That includes market making, financing, and custody tied to crypto assets.
The larger opening sits in moving present services onto new rails. Adoption may build step by step across linked products and client needs. As more use cases connect, banks could gain scale in payments and settlement.
For early banks, the opportunity comes from trust, access, and reliable operations. Clients may prefer providers that combine new rails with risk management. By 2030, those banks could hold a stronger position in wholesale banking.
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