Key Takeaways
- Q4 results showed Ebitda of $370M and revenue of $1.2B, falling short of analyst expectations
- Loss per share of -$0.02 significantly outperformed the -$0.43 consensus estimate — a 95% beat
- Shares declined approximately 9% Friday despite the earnings beat, following an 846% twelve-month surge
- Management projects mid-single-digit revenue expansion and flat Ebitda for fiscal 2027
- Barclays maintains Equalweight stance with $49 target, suggesting downside from current trading levels
Viasat (VSAT) presented fourth-quarter earnings Thursday that left Wall Street with mixed feelings. The satellite communications provider watched its shares tumble roughly 9% Friday, settling around $79, following quarterly results that came close to expectations but failed to fully satisfy investors.
The company reported adjusted Ebitda of $370 million alongside revenue totaling $1.2 billion for the quarter. Analyst consensus had anticipated $383 million in Ebitda and $1.2 billion in revenue. Revenue climbed 2% compared to the prior year period, yet came in 2.4% below StreetAccount projections. Adjusted Ebitda declined 1% year-over-year and underperformed consensus by 3.5%.
The earnings per share metric, however, told a more encouraging narrative. Viasat reported a loss of $0.02 per share versus the anticipated loss of $0.43 — representing a 95% positive surprise. Wall Street analysts currently forecast the satellite operator will achieve profitability during fiscal 2027, with earnings per share reaching $1.38.
Forward Outlook Meets Expectations
Management provided fiscal 2027 guidance projecting mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth with Ebitda expected to remain flat or increase modestly year-over-year. Capital spending is forecast between $950 million and $1 billion, while free cash flow is targeted at approximately $180 million, excluding any Ligado-related lump sum payments.
The Defense and Advanced Technologies division delivered strong performance with 12% revenue expansion year-over-year during Q4. Communication Services revenue contracted 2%. For the upcoming fiscal year, defense operations are expected to generate mid-teens growth, while Communication Services should see low single-digit advancement.
Net debt improved sequentially to $4.8 billion. Quarterly free cash flow registered $24 million — considerably below Barclays’ $91 million projection. Contract awards increased 9% year-over-year, reaching $1.3 billion.
Space Sector Enthusiasm Fuels Gains
A single-session decline of 9% represents significant movement for any equity. For Viasat shareholders, it merely scratches the surface of recent gains. Through Thursday’s closing bell, VSAT had skyrocketed 846% during the preceding twelve months.
This extraordinary appreciation stems partially from tangible operational achievements — including securing a contract with the U.S. Space Force — and partially from broader enthusiasm surrounding the commercial space industry. SpaceX’s rumored initial public offering, potentially valuing the company near $2 trillion, has elevated investor sentiment throughout the sector.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has surged 437% during the identical twelve-month timeframe. EchoStar, benefiting from SpaceX spectrum arrangements, has rallied approximately 557%.
Barclays maintained its Equalweight rating Friday with a $49 price objective. Given shares currently trade near $79 and approaching the 52-week peak of $89.78, the bank’s target suggests substantial downside potential. InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment similarly indicates the stock may be overvalued at present price levels.
Maritime revenue streams are projected to stabilize by late 2027. The Equatys D2D initiative remains scheduled to commence operations in 2029.
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