XRP Shows Buy Opportunity as Whale Withdrawals Surge and Circle Deal Speculation Builds

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Analytics platform Santiment reports XRP sentiment has reached its most fearful level in three weeks—a historically bullish contrarian indicator.
A massive 122 million XRP tokens exited Binance in one day—marking the largest withdrawal since February.
Institutional demand remains strong with XRP spot ETFs recording 16 consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating $116.75 million.
Market speculation intensifies around a potential $11 billion Ripple takeover of Circle, despite no official confirmation from either company.
The 30-day MVRV ratio has crashed to levels not seen since December 2020—a historical buy zone that preceded previous rallies.

Ripple’s XRP token is currently hovering around $1.34 following a recovery from its intraday low of $1.33. Trading activity has increased 5% over the last 24 hours as multiple on-chain indicators and futures market data point toward accumulation.

Blockchain analytics provider Santiment has identified a significant shift in market psychology surrounding XRP. The platform’s analysis shows the bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio across social platforms has collapsed to 1.1:1—entering what analysts describe as the “extreme fear” territory. Based on Santiment’s historical analysis, such pessimistic sentiment typically indicates that panicked sellers have already exited positions, creating favorable conditions for a reversal.

Further supporting this contrarian view, Santiment’s data reveals XRP’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric has plunged to its lowest reading since December 2020. This means traders who purchased XRP within the past month are sitting on average losses of 47%. According to the firm’s research, such deeply negative readings have historically marked periods when retail sentiment reaches capitulation—often preceding significant price recoveries.

📉 The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom. Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP. The chart shows… pic.twitter.com/a0s4ObRpQu
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 26, 2026

Large holder behavior is reinforcing these technical signals. CryptoQuant researcher Amr Taha documented that 122 million XRP tokens were removed from Binance exchange wallets during a single session on May 22—representing the most substantial one-day outflow recorded since the beginning of February. Exchange net position changes showed a decline of 30 million tokens that Sunday.

Institutional Appetite Grows Through ETF Channels and Futures Markets

Institutional investment vehicles continue showing sustained interest in XRP exposure. According to tracking data from SoSoValue, spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded uninterrupted positive flows for 16 consecutive trading sessions, with cumulative inflows totaling $116.75 million throughout this period.

Derivatives market participants are positioning for upside as well. Total open interest across XRP futures contracts expanded by more than 1% to reach $2.86 billion, with both CME Group and Binance registering increases on shorter timeframes.

Technical chart formations are also drawing attention from analysts. Daily Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest configuration since the middle of 2024. According to technical analyst Crypto Patel, previous instances of similar band compression have been followed by explosive upward movements ranging from 58% to 82%.

Circle Takeover Speculation Energizes XRP Community

Adding to the bullish narrative is widespread speculation that Ripple may be preparing to acquire Circle—the issuer behind the USDC stablecoin—in a deal valued at approximately $11 billion. The speculation gained momentum after the XRP Ledger Foundation posted a cryptic message on X stating: “Tomorrow’s going to be a great day.” However, no official statements have been released by leadership at either organization.

🚨 Ripple × Circle $11B Acquisition Rumors Are Heating Up Again.
Bullish Implications for $XRP:
• Stablecoin Empire: Control USDC + RLUSD = unstoppable payments dominance.
• XRP Bridge Power: XRP becomes the ultimate cross-border settlement asset between massive liquidity… pic.twitter.com/CRftjlEbFy
— ghost (@ghostweb3) May 25, 2026

This isn’t the first time acquisition rumors have surfaced. In a previous episode last year, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse publicly refuted a Bloomberg report suggesting Ripple had made a $4–$5 billion offer for Circle. At that time, Circle also stated it had no intention of being sold.

From a technical perspective, XRP remains positioned below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index currently registers near 41. Technical analyst ChartNerd has highlighted the present lower support boundary as critical, warning that a breach of this level could spark a more extensive downward correction.

At press time, XRP futures open interest on CME increased 0.32% while Binance contracts climbed 1.13% on the four-hour chart.