Key Points
- Prediction market operator Kalshi has established Americans for Fair Markets (AFM), a lobbying organization focused on influencing policy decisions regarding prediction markets.
- Taylor Budowich, who previously served in the Trump administration, has joined as a strategic advisor to the newly formed group.
- AFM’s formation coincided with House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer’s announcement of investigations into potential insider trading at Kalshi and competing platform Polymarket.
- The organization frames itself in opposition to traditional gaming operators, accusing them of disseminating misleading claims about prediction market platforms.
- Traditional gambling industry representatives have countered by characterizing prediction markets as disguised sports wagering platforms.
A new advocacy organization focused on prediction markets has emerged, with Kalshiāa federally sanctioned prediction market operatorāestablishing Americans for Fair Markets. This lobbying entity intends to shape regulatory and legislative perspectives on prediction markets across the country.
Taylor Budowich, who held senior positions in the Trump White House before departing in September, has been brought on as strategic advisor. His previous roles included communications responsibilities for both the administration and a Trump-supporting political action committee.
While Kalshi provided financial backing for AFM, representatives indicate additional members have joined the coalition. A spokesperson characterized the organization as having substantial financial resources, though specific funding amounts remain undisclosed.
According to AFM, its primary mission involves challenging what it describes as misleading information circulated by conventional gambling enterprises. The group contends that established sportsbooks and casino operators are attempting to safeguard their market position by misrepresenting prediction markets.
“Entrenched monopolistic interests won’t outspend or outmaneuver us in this fight,” stated John Bivona, who leads government relations at Kalshi and now serves on AFM’s board.
Congressional Investigation Announced Simultaneously
In a notable coincidence, AFM’s debut occurred the same day House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer revealed investigations targeting potential insider trading activities on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The probe centers on questionable wagers placed before military operations involving Venezuela and Iran, incidents that have already resulted in law enforcement action domestically and abroad.
Kalshi has publicly expressed support for Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight. Meanwhile, jurisdictional disputes continue between the CFTC and state-level regulators, with states maintaining that prediction markets contravene local gaming statutes.
Polymarket maintains a compliant domestic platform while routing the majority of transactions through international channels. Conversely, Kalshi functions predominantly as a federally authorized exchange within U.S. borders.
Traditional Gaming Sector Voices Opposition
The American Gaming Association has adopted a firm position against prediction market expansion. During recent congressional testimony, the organization’s president and CEO Bill Miller characterized these services as platforms “deceptively rebranding sports wagering as financial instruments and investment opportunities.”
In response, AFM’s digital presence argues that prohibiting prediction markets would force activity toward “offshore unregulated venues lacking identity verification, consumer safeguards, or insider trading enforcement.”
AFM represents part of a larger advocacy effort alongside the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which formed in December 2025 with backing from major companies including Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.
The organization has announced support for platforms implementing consumer protection measures such as identity verification protocols, insider trading prohibitions, and restrictions preventing markets related to violent acts or terrorism.
President Trump’s stance on prediction markets has fluctuated. Initial comments from last month expressed dissatisfaction with these platforms, though he subsequently moderated his position, warning that prohibition could leave the United States at a competitive disadvantage internationally. His son, Donald Trump Jr., maintains financial interests in Polymarket through investment and advisory board participation, while also advising Kalshi.
Following a recent $1 billion fundraising round, Kalshi’s company valuation has surged to $22 billion, representing a twofold increase.
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