Key Highlights
- SoftBank shares climbed as much as 14% on Friday, following a nearly 20% gain on Thursday, totaling approximately 32% over two sessions
- Nvidia’s unprecedented quarterly sales of $81.6 billion, marking an 85% year-over-year increase, sparked renewed optimism for AI-related equities like SoftBank
- Arm Holdings, majority-owned by SoftBank, jumped over 16% on Friday, enhancing SoftBank’s overall asset valuation
- Reports emerged that OpenAI plans to submit a confidential IPO filing in the United States, potentially by Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriters
- SoftBank posted an unprecedented annual net profit of ¥5 trillion for the fiscal year ending March, including $45 billion in cumulative gains from its OpenAI holdings
Shares of SoftBank Group reached 6,881 yen on Friday, climbing up to 14% during the trading session and hovering just beneath the all-time peak of 6,923.8 yen. This followed Thursday’s remarkable near-20% surge that added approximately $35 billion to the company’s market capitalization in one day.
The combined two-day increase of roughly 32% has captured widespread market attention, leaving investors and market observers debating whether this movement represents genuine value creation or simply a speculative AI-driven trading opportunity.
Three significant developments converged to trigger this dramatic rally. Nvidia unveiled quarterly revenues of $81.6 billion, representing an 85% year-over-year surge, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure investment continues accelerating. This announcement created a ripple effect across every enterprise connected to the AI ecosystem.
SoftBank occupies a central position within this investment theme. With its controlling stake in Arm Holdings and substantial investment in OpenAI, the company represents one of the most accessible public-market vehicles for AI exposure.
Arm Holdings experienced a surge exceeding 16% on Friday. Given SoftBank’s significant ownership position in the semiconductor design firm, substantial movements in Arm’s stock price directly influence how markets assess SoftBank’s consolidated asset portfolio.
OpenAI Public Offering News Intensifies Momentum
The third and possibly most significant catalyst emerged from reports that OpenAI is preparing to file confidentially for a US initial public offering, potentially as early as Friday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly managing the process.
Andrew Jackson from Ortus Advisors characterized the IPO speculation as the unifying element of the rally — a singular development allowing investors to connect Nvidia’s demand indicators, Arm’s market valuation, and SoftBank’s private AI holdings into a cohesive investment thesis.
SoftBank recently announced its most impressive annual financial performance on record. Net profit for the fiscal year concluding in March reached ¥5 trillion, establishing a historic record for any Japanese corporation. The unrealized gains from its OpenAI investment alone amounted to $45 billion.
CreditSights, a Fitch Ratings subsidiary, maintained its “outperform” rating on SoftBank’s debt instruments, arguing that the company’s fundamental asset value remains robust despite increased balance sheet leverage.
Bloomberg Intelligence researchers observed that prospective public offerings of OpenAI and SoftBank’s renewable energy and data infrastructure division SB Energy could help reduce SoftBank’s substantial discount to net asset value, currently exceeding 20%, while simultaneously releasing capital for additional investment opportunities.
Market Skepticism Persists Among Some Analysts
Not all market participants are embracing the rally with equal enthusiasm. Vey-Sern Ling from UBP warned that holding-company valuation discounts typically persist regardless of underlying asset performance. Parent company shareholders frequently fail to realize the complete value of subsidiary holdings.
SoftBank’s financial leverage, asset-backed financing structures, and dependence on private market valuations add additional layers of complexity to the valuation equation.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar increased his SoftBank ADR price objective from $13 to $20 while maintaining a Hold recommendation — indicating that even analysts raising their targets aren’t necessarily advocating investors pursue the stock at present price levels.
The SoftBank ADR movement mirrors the pattern observed in Tokyo, with shares advancing sharply across both markets throughout the two-day period.
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