Key Takeaways
- First-quarter 2026 revenue reached $399 million for Nebius, marking a 684% year-over-year increase and crushing EPS projections by 71.6%
- Citi analysts established a new Street-leading price target of $287 on NBIS shares, elevated from $169, while reaffirming their Buy stance
- Shares have climbed 138% since January and delivered a remarkable 434% return over twelve months, pushing market capitalization near $55.65 billion
- Major customer agreements include approximately $27 billion with Meta and $17.4 billion with Microsoft; Nvidia committed $2 billion in capital during March
- Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 increased to $20–$25 billion, with management targeting an annual revenue run rate between $7–$9 billion by December
Nebius Group delivered remarkable first-quarter financial performance while securing Wall Street’s most bullish price projection from Citi, cementing its position as a must-watch AI infrastructure stock.
First-quarter 2026 sales totaled $399 million, representing a dramatic 684% surge from the prior-year figure of $50.9 million. The result exceeded market predictions significantly. Earnings per share registered at -$0.23 compared to analyst consensus of -$0.81, representing a positive variance of 71.6%.
Shares rallied 15.72% during the trading session following the earnings announcement. The stock has appreciated 138% since the beginning of the year and posted gains of 434% across the trailing twelve-month period.
Citi responded swiftly to the quarterly disclosure. Shortly after results were published, the investment bank elevated its valuation target to $287 from its previous $169 mark, establishing the highest projection among Wall Street firms while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The rationale centered on Nebius’s exceptional expansion trajectory and the substantial infrastructure contracts underpinning future performance.
The AI Cloud division powered the company’s growth, posting an 841% increase to reach $390 million in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA transformed from a $53.7 million deficit to a $129.5 million surplus. Net income from continuing operations reversed from a $104.3 million loss to generate $621.2 million in profit.
Challenges remain visible in the financial picture. Adjusted net loss expanded to $100.3 million from $83.6 million in the comparable period, reflecting substantial investment requirements to support rapid scaling. Management also increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $20–$25 billion, elevated from the prior $16–$20 billion guidance.
Strategic Partnerships Fuel Long-Term Pipeline
Substantial infrastructure agreements anchor the company’s forward outlook. A multi-year arrangement valued near $27 billion with Meta, combined with a $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft, establishes a substantial multi-year revenue foundation. Nvidia contributed $2 billion in strategic investment during March and is collaborating with Nebius on cloud infrastructure solutions for robotics and physical AI applications.
Construction has commenced on a gigawatt-scale AI facility located in Independence, Missouri. Additional expansion plans include a 1.2 GW power supply agreement supporting a potential $20 billion buildout across the United States.
The company maintains ownership of over 75% of its contracted power capacity, an exceptionally high percentage for AI cloud infrastructure providers. This ownership structure delivers enhanced margin control and cost advantages compared to competitors who predominantly lease their energy requirements.
Strategic Acquisitions and Technology Integration
Nebius continues platform expansion through targeted acquisitions. The company intends to acquire Eigen AI to enhance its Token Factory inference platform, while onboarding Clarifai’s engineering team and licensing inference intellectual property to accelerate model deployment capabilities.
An agreement to acquire Tavily will introduce agentic search functionality to the cloud portfolio. A strategic alliance with CrowdStrike delivers comprehensive security across its next-generation cloud infrastructure.
The organization introduced Nebius AI Cloud 3.5, featuring serverless AI capabilities that enable developers to access on-demand computing resources without infrastructure management overhead.
Balance sheet metrics show $9.3 billion in cash holdings against $8.4 billion in long-term debt obligations as of the first-quarter conclusion.
Management projects the company will reach an annual revenue run rate spanning $7–$9 billion by the conclusion of 2026. The subsequent quarterly earnings disclosure is calendared for August 6, 2026. Wall Street analysts currently model Q2 2026 EPS at -$0.69.
Across a panel of 14 analysts, the consensus recommendation stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price objective of $205.20.
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