TLDR
- OKX Ventures says perps and prediction markets now meet inside shared trading account strategies globally.
- Polymarket, Kalshi, and Hyperliquid are adding products to capture capital, volume, and event fees growth.
- Perps rely on high volume and low fees, while prediction markets seek higher trade margins.
- Sports prediction flow may use perps for retention rather than cross-margin hedging, OKX Ventures said.
- Non-sports markets could drive demand for unified margin accounts and event based hedge trading flows.
OKX Ventures said perpetual futures and prediction markets are moving toward a shared trading account model. The firm framed the shift around Polymarket, Kalshi, and Hyperliquid in a recent X thread. It said both products let traders price unknown future states, despite different designs.
The post focused on account design, pricing, and fees. It also compared why trading venues may add products outside their original markets. The firm did not present the move as one single market for every use case.
Trading Products Move Toward Shared Accounts
OKX Ventures said the change is happening at the “trading-account layer.” It noted that Polymarket and Kalshi launched perps in April. It also said Hyperliquid shipped HIP-4 outcome contracts on May 2.
The firm drew a link between leveraged crypto trading and binary event contracts. Perps offer continuous exposure, while prediction markets settle around YES or NO outcomes. Both products let users trade views on events that have not happened.
OKX Ventures said, “These instruments look nothing alike.” It added that one product is leveraged and quoted without expiry. It described the other as binary and priced from 0 to 1.
OKX Ventures compared several financial products through the same state-pricing frame. It said stocks price future company cash flows. It also said bonds bundle repayment and default probabilities. Options, in its view, divide price paths into state buckets.
Business Models Push Platforms Across Product Lines
OKX Ventures said perps are mainly a volume business. It cited global notional volume of $61.7 trillion in 2025. It also said take rates sit in single-digit basis points.
By contrast, prediction markets can earn higher fees on lower volume. The post described that model as a margin business. It said event trades can charge around 200 basis points per trade.
The firm said each platform now seeks the other side’s strength. Polymarket added perps to use capital between event resolutions. Kalshi added perps to extend sports users into active position management.
It said Hyperliquid added outcome contracts through its existing matching engine. OKX Ventures said this could add 50 to 200 basis points. It compared that with 3.1 basis points earned on perps.
Sports and Non-Sports Markets Follow Different Paths
OKX Ventures said the combined model does not fit all prediction market flow. It split the market into sports and non-sports segments. It said the logic changes when users move from sports bets to broader information markets.
In sports, perps may work as a product extension. They can keep users active between events, and they may raise revenue per user. However, OKX Ventures did not describe sports flow as true cross-margin hedging.
The firm gave a different view for non-sports markets. It said this area carries stronger demand for unified margin accounts. It also linked the segment to cross-margin hedge flow and information finance.
The wider goal is one account for directional and state-based trades. Such accounts could let users manage several market views together. OKX Ventures said the winner may take share from both trading models.
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