Key Takeaways
- Maelstrom’s CIO Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin reaching $126,000 before year-end
- The prediction ties BTC’s upcoming surge to artificial intelligence investment, Middle East conflict, and worldwide monetary expansion
- According to Hayes, Bitcoin found its floor at $60,000 in early 2025 and is already outperforming traditional safe havens like gold
- The $90,000 price point represents a critical threshold that could trigger accelerated upward momentum
- Hayes’s fund is shifting to “maximum risk” positioning, with holdings in HYPE, ZEC, and plans for NEAR
On May 12, Arthur HayesâBitMEX co-founder and the chief investment officer at cryptocurrency investment fund Maelstromâreleased an essay declaring that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is already underway.
In his piece titled “The Butterfly Touch,” Hayes presented his thesis that three converging dynamicsâmassive AI infrastructure investment, escalating US-Iran military tensions, and a worldwide pivot away from dollar-based assetsâare compelling governments to embrace looser monetary frameworks and accelerate currency creation.
“The bull market kicked off in earnest when America launched its strike on Iran on February 28th,” Hayes stated in his analysis.
Data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a range of $79,467 to $82,496 throughout the last week. On Wednesday, it was trading near $81,000, representing a gain of over 31% from its February 6 bottom of $62,822.
Hayes contends this superior performance compared to goldâwhich only appreciated approximately 2% during the identical timeframeâdemonstrates Bitcoin’s responsiveness to the emerging political landscape surrounding monetary creation.
Artificial Intelligence Arms Race Fueling Currency Expansion
Hayes characterized AI development as a critical national security imperative for both America and China. This dynamic, he maintains, prevents either nation from pursuing monetary discipline while its rival aggressively finances AI infrastructure.
He explained that AI investment is now flowing through credit markets, compelling financial institutions and central banks to facilitate spending on server farms, power generation, and computing resources. Hayes referenced the Jevons Paradox alongside the “Red Queen Effect” to support his argument that AI expenditure creates a self-perpetuating cycleâas intelligence becomes more affordable, consumption increases, demanding additional capital.
“Fiat currency units tomorrow will vastly exceed today’s supply, with the growth rate accelerating as yearly AI and electrification capital expenditures rapidly increase,” Hayes explained.
Critical $90,000 Threshold Identified
Hayes maintains Bitcoin established its bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2025 and projects a $126,000 price target, describing it as a “foregone conclusion.”
He identified $90,000 as a pivotal price level where options market dynamics could force call writers to cover their positions, potentially catalyzing rapid price appreciation.
“I anticipate the rally will gain intensity and skeptics will retreat as Bitcoin’s price trajectory becomes explosive following a breakthrough above $90,000,” Hayes wrote.
He noted that Maelstrom plans to adopt “maximum risk” exposure unless market conditions undergo significant transformation.
Hayes further argued that nations which formerly accumulated US Treasury securities may now reallocate capital toward defense capabilities, energy independence, and tangible infrastructure projectsâproviding US officials with justification to maintain accommodative financial conditions. He suggested potential dollar swap arrangements and eased banking capital requirements as probable policy mechanisms.
Hayes concluded by disclosing Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Zcash’s ZEC as substantial current holdings, while highlighting NEAR as his next planned investment.
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