TLDR
- On May 12, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator switched to green for the first time in over two years
- When this signal last activated in March 2023, Bitcoin rallied from $20,000 to surpass $73,000
- Experts caution that a March 2022 false signal means confirmation isn’t automatic
- Breaking through the $82,000 resistance is essential to validate this bullish signal
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projects $90,000 as the catalyst for a surge toward $126,000
For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin’s CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has transitioned into bullish mode. This significant shift occurred on May 12, while Bitcoin was trading north of $80,000 following an approximately 35% recovery from its February bottom near $60,000.
This technical indicator operates based on CryptoQuant’s comprehensive Profit and Loss Index, which synthesizes the MVRV ratio, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the relationship between Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios. According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research director, this transition “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed.”
The most recent validated green reading emerged in March 2023 and remained active through August 2024. Throughout that timeframe, Bitcoin’s value skyrocketed from approximately $20,000 to establish a new all-time peak exceeding $73,000.
Institutional capital flowing into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products totaled $2.44 billion in April, marking the most robust monthly accumulation since October 2025. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently registers at 4.5, representing the third-highest measurement in Bitcoin’s entire history. The only comparable previous readings materialized at the 2015 and 2022 cycle troughs.
Why Analysts Are Cautious
Not all market observers are interpreting this development as a definitive bull market confirmation. Mati Greenspan, who founded Quantum Economics, characterized the metric as a regime-shift mechanism rather than a forecasting tool. He explained it is “most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset.”
Greenspan emphasized that genuine confirmation demands sustained buying pressure, adequate liquidity, and price consolidation at elevated levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he noted.
The notable historical outlier remains March 2022. During that period, the indicator momentarily flashed green before Bitcoin continued its descent well into 2023. Market analysts reference this instance as justification for measured expectations currently.
Moreno additionally highlighted signs of fatigue across several supplementary indicators. The Fear and Greed index presently shows neutral readings, while the broader macroeconomic environment continues to present challenges.
The $82,000 Level to Watch
Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to establish a firm breakout beyond $82,000, a resistance zone that has thwarted numerous upward attempts. Moreno emphasized that penetrating this barrier is necessary before the optimistic signal can gain confirmation through price behavior.
Jason Fernandes, who co-founded AdLunam, explained that indicators such as MVRV and NUPL “were never designed to be precise trading signals.” He portrayed them as conceptual frameworks for assessing Bitcoin’s position within an extended liquidity cycle.
Arthur Hayes, who serves as CIO at Maelstrom and co-founded BitMEX, believes Bitcoin already established its cycle floor at $60,000 earlier in 2026. He pinpointed $90,000 as the threshold where any upward movement would accelerate dramatically, with the previous all-time high of $126,000 serving as the subsequent objective.
Lacie Zhang, an analyst with Bitget Wallet, suggested Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” pointing to robust institutional backing and persistent ETF capital inflows as foundational elements.
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